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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">abc</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">Arq. Bras. Cardiol.</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">0066-782X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1678-4170</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia - SBC</publisher-name>
        <publisher-loc>S&#227;o Paulo, SP, Brazil</publisher-loc>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v3">jLfKJb6XYtMpxPqyfyFTw7K</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v2">S0066-782X2012000600007</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v1">S0066-782X(12)09800607</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1590/S0066-782X2012005000041</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Artigos Originais</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>An&#225;lise da tend&#234;ncia da mortalidade por acidente vascular cerebral no Brasil no s&#233;culo XXI</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Garritano</surname>
            <given-names>C&#233;lia Regina</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff03"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Luz</surname>
            <given-names>Paula Mendes</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff02"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Pires</surname>
            <given-names>Maria Lucia Elias</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff03"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Barbosa</surname>
            <given-names>Maria Teresa Serrano</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff03"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Batista</surname>
            <given-names>Keila Moreira</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff03"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff01">
        <addr-line>
          <named-content content-type="state">Rio de Janeiro</named-content>
        </addr-line>
        <institution content-type="orgname">Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro</institution>
        <country country="BR">Brazil</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="aff03">
        <addr-line>
          <named-content content-type="city">Petrolina</named-content>
          <named-content content-type="state">Pernambuco</named-content>
        </addr-line>
        <institution content-type="orgname">Universidade Federal do Vale do S&#227;o Francisco</institution>
        <country country="BR">Brazil</country>
      </aff>
      <aff id="aff02">
        <addr-line>
          <named-content content-type="city">Rio de Janeiro</named-content>
          <named-content content-type="state">Rio de Janeiro</named-content>
        </addr-line>
        <institution content-type="orgname">Funda&#231;&#227;o Oswaldo Cruz</institution>
        <institution content-type="orgdiv1">Instituto de Pesquisa Cl&#237;nica Evandro Chagas </institution>
        <country country="BR">Brazil</country>
      </aff>
      <pub-date date-type="collection" publication-format="electronic">
        <month>06</month>
        <year>2012</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>98</volume>
      <issue>6</issue>
      <fpage>519</fpage>
      <lpage>527</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received">
          <day>15</day>
          <month>08</month>
          <year>2011</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="accepted">
          <day>14</day>
          <month>12</month>
          <year>2011</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="rev-recd">
          <day>16</day>
          <month>08</month>
          <year>2011</year>
        </date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" xml:lang="en">
          <license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>FUNDAMENTO: Embora seja mundialmente a segunda principal causa de &#243;bitos, o Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) vem apresentando uma importante redu&#231;&#227;o das taxas de mortalidade nas &#250;ltimas d&#233;cadas. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tend&#234;ncia da taxa de mortalidade por acidente vascular cerebral no Brasil, em ambos os sexos, a partir dos 30 anos de idade, entre 2000 e 2009. M&#201;TODOS: Os dados populacionais foram obtidos no banco de dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat&#237;stica e os &#243;bitos, por meio do Sistema de Informa&#231;&#245;es sobre Mortalidade da Secretaria de Vigil&#226;ncia em Sa&#250;de do Minist&#233;rio da Sa&#250;de, sendo inclu&#237;dos os c&#243;digos I60 a I69 de acordo com a 10&#170; Classifica&#231;&#227;o Internacional de Doen&#231;as. Foi calculada a incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos/1.000 habitantes, as taxas de mortalidade bruta e padronizada/100.000 habitantes. A modelagem da tend&#234;ncia das taxas foi feita com modelos de regress&#227;o. RESULTADOS: Observou-se um aumento na incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos at&#233; 2006, seguindo-se um decl&#237;nio at&#233; 2009, quando ocorreu a incid&#234;ncia m&#237;nima. Comparando os anos 2000 e 2009, nota-se uma tend&#234;ncia de queda da taxa de mortalidade padronizada em ambos os sexos (masculino = -14,69%; feminino = -17%) e no total (-14,99%), com oscila&#231;&#245;es no per&#237;odo. Entre 30 e 49 anos em ambos os sexos, houve uma tend&#234;ncia de redu&#231;&#227;o cont&#237;nua e linear da taxa de mortalidade, enquanto os demais grupos et&#225;rios apresentaram uma fun&#231;&#227;o curvil&#237;nea, culminando com uma efetiva diminui&#231;&#227;o dos valores. CONCLUS&#195;O: Houve uma tend&#234;ncia de queda na taxa de mortalidade em todas as faixas et&#225;rias e em ambos os sexos. A redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade bruta foi mais acentuada no sexo masculino, enquanto a taxa de mortalidade padronizada mostrou uma maior redu&#231;&#227;o no sexo feminino.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="pt" kwd-group-type="author-generated">
        <kwd>Acidente vascular cerebral</kwd>
        <kwd>epidemiologia</kwd>
        <kwd>Brasil</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub">
        <day>26</day>
        <month>04</month>
        <year>2012</year>
      </pub-date>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <p>
      <bold>An&#225;lise da tend&#234;ncia da mortalidade por acidente vascular cerebral no Brasil no s&#233;culo XXI</bold>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>C&#233;lia Regina Garritano<sup>I,III</sup>; Paula Mendes Luz<sup>II</sup>; Maria Lucia Elias Pires<sup>I,III</sup>; Maria Teresa Serrano Barbosa<sup>I,III</sup>; Keila Moreira Batista<sup>III</sup></bold>
    </p>
    <p><sup>I</sup>Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro </p>
    <p><sup>II</sup>Instituto de Pesquisa Cl&#237;nica Evandro Chagas - Funda&#231;&#227;o Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ </p>
    <p><sup>III</sup>Universidade Federal do Vale de S&#227;o Francisco, Petrolina, PE, Brasil</p>
    <p>
      <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="not">Correspond&#234;ncia</xref>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>RESUMO</bold>
    </p>
    <p><bold>FUNDAMENTO:</bold> Embora seja mundialmente a segunda principal causa de &#243;bitos, o Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) vem apresentando uma importante redu&#231;&#227;o das taxas de mortalidade nas &#250;ltimas d&#233;cadas. </p>
    <p><bold>OBJETIVO:</bold> Avaliar a tend&#234;ncia da taxa de mortalidade por acidente vascular cerebral no Brasil, em ambos os sexos, a partir dos 30 anos de idade, entre 2000 e 2009. </p>
    <p><bold>M&#201;TODOS:</bold> Os dados populacionais foram obtidos no banco de dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat&#237;stica e os &#243;bitos, por meio do Sistema de Informa&#231;&#245;es sobre Mortalidade da Secretaria de Vigil&#226;ncia em Sa&#250;de do Minist&#233;rio da Sa&#250;de, sendo inclu&#237;dos os c&#243;digos I60 a I69 de acordo com a 10&#170; Classifica&#231;&#227;o Internacional de Doen&#231;as. Foi calculada a incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos/1.000 habitantes, as taxas de mortalidade bruta e padronizada/100.000 habitantes. A modelagem da tend&#234;ncia das taxas foi feita com modelos de regress&#227;o. </p>
    <p><bold>RESULTADOS:</bold> Observou-se um aumento na incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos at&#233; 2006, seguindo-se um decl&#237;nio at&#233; 2009, quando ocorreu a incid&#234;ncia m&#237;nima. Comparando os anos 2000 e 2009, nota-se uma tend&#234;ncia de queda da taxa de mortalidade padronizada em ambos os sexos (masculino = -14,69%; feminino = -17%) e no total (-14,99%), com oscila&#231;&#245;es no per&#237;odo. Entre 30 e 49 anos em ambos os sexos, houve uma tend&#234;ncia de redu&#231;&#227;o cont&#237;nua e linear da taxa de mortalidade, enquanto os demais grupos et&#225;rios apresentaram uma fun&#231;&#227;o curvil&#237;nea, culminando com uma efetiva diminui&#231;&#227;o dos valores. </p>
    <p><bold>CONCLUS&#195;O:</bold> Houve uma tend&#234;ncia de queda na taxa de mortalidade em todas as faixas et&#225;rias e em ambos os sexos. A redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade bruta foi mais acentuada no sexo masculino, enquanto a taxa de mortalidade padronizada mostrou uma maior redu&#231;&#227;o no sexo feminino.</p>
    <p><bold>Palavras-chave:</bold> Acidente vascular cerebral/mortalidade, epidemiologia, Brasil.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Introdu&#231;&#227;o</bold>
    </p>
    <p>O n&#250;mero de indiv&#237;duos com mais de 60 anos de idade vem aumentando acentuadamente nas &#250;ltimas d&#233;cadas em todo o mundo, com proje&#231;&#245;es indicando que em 2050 esse grupo contar&#225; com cerca de 1.900 milh&#245;es de pessoas<sup>1</sup>. No Brasil, essa faixa da popula&#231;&#227;o apresentou um crescimento de 33,65% no per&#237;odo de 2000 a 2009<sup>2</sup>, e com isso as Doen&#231;as Cr&#244;nicas N&#227;o Transmiss&#237;veis (DCNT) passaram a ser predominantes<sup>3,4</sup>, com destaque para as Doen&#231;as Cardiovasculares (DCV), que se tornaram a principal causa de &#243;bitos em ambos os sexos no Brasil<sup>5,6</sup>. Dentro do grupo das DCV, o Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) tornou-se uma das principais causas de morte e incapacidade, j&#225; sendo considerado a segunda maior causa de mortes no mundo<sup>7-10</sup>. Entre todos os pa&#237;ses da Am&#233;rica Latina, o Brasil &#233; o que apresenta as maiores taxas de mortalidade por AVC, sendo entre as mulheres a principal causa de &#243;bitos<sup>11</sup>. Mesmo sendo referida uma redu&#231;&#227;o dos &#237;ndices de mortalidade nas &#250;ltimas d&#233;cadas, os valores continuam muito elevados<sup>7,8,12-15</sup>.</p>
    <p>O objetivo deste trabalho &#233; analisar a tend&#234;ncia das taxas de mortalidade por AVC no Brasil (BR) entre 2000 e 2009, em ambos os sexos e nas diferentes faixas et&#225;rias.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>M&#233;todos</bold>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>Coleta dos dados</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Os dados populacionais foram obtidos por meio do censo de 2000 e de proje&#231;&#245;es intercensit&#225;rias de 2001 a 2009 da popula&#231;&#227;o residente no Brasil, realizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat&#237;stica (IBGE)<sup>16</sup>, e estratificados de acordo com o sexo e as faixas et&#225;rias em intervalos decenais iniciando em 30 a 39 anos at&#233; 80 anos ou mais de idade.</p>
    <p>As causas de &#243;bitos foram selecionadas de acordo com a Classifica&#231;&#227;o Internacional de Doen&#231;as (CID 10), sendo inclu&#237;dos os c&#243;digos I60 a I69. O n&#250;mero de &#243;bitos foi obtido por meio do Sistema de Informa&#231;&#245;es sobre Mortalidade (SIM), da Secretaria de Vigil&#226;ncia em Sa&#250;de do Minist&#233;rio da Sa&#250;de (Datasus)<sup>17</sup>.</p>
    <p>A incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos foi calculada em rela&#231;&#227;o ao g&#234;nero e no total/1.000 habitantes.</p>
    <p>A taxa de mortalidade bruta foi calculada de acordo com o g&#234;nero e faixa et&#225;ria, tendo como refer&#234;ncia a popula&#231;&#227;o estimada para cada faixa et&#225;ria e sexo no ano referente<sup>16</sup>. Para o c&#225;lculo da mortalidade ajustada, foi usado o m&#233;todo direto, tendo como popula&#231;&#227;o padr&#227;o a descrita pela Organiza&#231;&#227;o Mundial de Sa&#250;de (OMS) em 2000<sup>18</sup>.</p>
    <p>Todos os c&#225;lculos foram feitos com dados anuais entre 2000 e 2009.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Metodologia estat&#237;stica</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Para todas as medidas epidemiol&#243;gicas estimadas, dados relativos &#224; incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos foram plotados e por meio do diagrama de dispers&#227;o verificou-se que uma fun&#231;&#227;o linear ou quadr&#225;tica deveria ser ajustada.</p>
    <p>Em cada fun&#231;&#227;o quadr&#225;tica foi determinado o coeficiente de determina&#231;&#227;o (R<sup>2</sup>) e o ponto de m&#225;ximo, e os anos de 2000 a 2009 foram substitu&#237;dos por 0 a 9, respectivamente.</p>
    <p>O n&#237;vel de signific&#226;ncia adotado foi de 5% de probabilidade (&#945; = 0,05).</p>
    <p>A apresenta&#231;&#227;o gr&#225;fica da tend&#234;ncia das taxas de mortalidade bruta e padronizada por AVC/100.000 habitantes foi determinada por diagrama de dispers&#227;o.</p>
    <p>Para a an&#225;lise estat&#237;stica foram utilizados o softwares Statistical Package for Social Sciences V13.0 (SPSS Inc. Chicago, Illinois, USA) e StatDisk V 8.4 (Addison Wesley Longman Inc).</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Resultados</bold>
    </p>
    <p>A <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1">tabela 1</xref> (a, b, c) mostra o n&#250;mero de &#243;bitos por AVC, a popula&#231;&#227;o e a incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos em cada 1.000 habitantes no Brasil, nos anos de 2000 a 2009, em raz&#227;o dos g&#234;neros e total.</p>
    <table-wrap id="tab1">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt01.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <p>Analisando essas tabelas, verifica-se que h&#225; um aumento da incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos at&#233; um determinado ano, seguido de um decl&#237;nio at&#233; 2009, quando atinge o m&#237;nimo, sugerindo o ajustamento aos dados uma fun&#231;&#227;o do segundo grau, que proporcionou as fun&#231;&#245;es contidas na <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab02m">tabela 2</xref>.</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <table-wrap id="aop03812_port_tab02m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt02.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    </p>
    <p>Por meio da an&#225;lise da <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab02m">tabela 2</xref>, pode-se afirmar estatisticamente (p &lt; 0,05) que os dados indicam uma fun&#231;&#227;o quadr&#225;tica onde a incid&#234;ncia m&#225;xima de &#243;bitos dos g&#234;neros masculino e feminino encontra-se pr&#243;xima ao ano 2003, assim como em ambos os sexos.</p>
    <p>Considerando o n&#250;mero absoluto total de &#243;bitos, nota-se o predom&#237;nio do sexo masculino (50,61%) sobre o feminino (49,39%), mas ao se comparar os anos 2009 e 2000 observa-se que houve um crescimento maior do n&#250;mero de &#243;bitos entre as mulheres (+ 19,11%) do que nos homens (+14,92%). Associando faixa et&#225;ria e g&#234;nero, o n&#250;mero de &#243;bitos entre as mulheres apresentou uma eleva&#231;&#227;o cont&#237;nua conforme o aumento da faixa et&#225;ria, enquanto entre os homens, o n&#250;mero de mortes no grupo com mais de 80 anos foi inferior ao de 70-79 anos.</p>
    <p>A taxa de mortalidade bruta por AVC/100.000 habitantes, comparando o ano 2009 com 2000, mostrou um decl&#237;nio de 7,34%, havendo uma redu&#231;&#227;o maior da referida taxa no sexo masculino (-8,46%) do que no feminino (-6,13%). No entanto, observa-se que ocorreram flutua&#231;&#245;es em todo o per&#237;odo, com o ano 2006 apresentando as maiores taxas, especialmente no sexo masculino. Analisando por faixa et&#225;ria, nota-se que essas oscila&#231;&#245;es foram mais acentuadas no grupo acima de 70 anos ou mais de idade, sendo mais marcantes no sexo masculino, e que apenas na faixa de 30-39 anos entre os homens e nas de 30-49 e 60-69 anos entre as mulheres a redu&#231;&#227;o foi cont&#237;nua (dados n&#227;o mostrados). O <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_port_gra01m">gr&#225;fico 1</xref> mostra a curva de tend&#234;ncia de regress&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade bruta/100.000 habitantes por AVC de 2000 a 2009 em ambos os sexos e no total.</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <fig id="aop03812_port_gra01m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf01.jpg"/></fig>
    </p>
    <p>A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por AVC tamb&#233;m apresentou uma redu&#231;&#227;o comparando o ano 2009 com 2000, sendo no total igual a -14,99%, no sexo masculino de -14,69% e no feminino de -17% (<xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab03m">tab. 3</xref>).</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <table-wrap id="aop03812_port_tab03m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt03.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    </p>
    <p>A an&#225;lise dos dados da taxa de mortalidade entre 2000 e 2009 em ambos os sexos e no total mostrou uma flutua&#231;&#227;o dos valores sugerindo novamente o ajustamento aos dados uma fun&#231;&#227;o do segundo grau, mostrada na <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab04m">tabela 4</xref>.</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <table-wrap id="aop03812_port_tab04m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt04.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    </p>
    <p>Analisando a <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab04m">tabela 4</xref>, pode-se afirmar estatisticamente (p &lt; 0,05) que os dados indicam uma fun&#231;&#227;o quadr&#225;tica onde a incid&#234;ncia m&#225;xima da mortalidade padronizada entre os homens ocorreu pr&#243;ximo ao ano 2002, enquanto entre as mulheres e em ambos os sexos isso aconteceu em 2003.</p>
    <p>O <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_port_gra02m">gr&#225;fico 2</xref> mostra a curva de tend&#234;ncia de regress&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade padronizada por AVC/100.000 habitantes em ambos os sexos, de acordo com o g&#234;nero no per&#237;odo estudado.</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <fig id="aop03812_port_gra02m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf02.jpg"/></fig>
    </p>
    <p>Considerando faixas et&#225;rias e g&#234;nero, e comparando o ano 2009 com 2000, a taxa de mortalidade padronizada nas mulheres apresentou um maior decl&#237;nio nos grupos et&#225;rios de 30-39 anos (-33,92%), 70-79 anos (-13,71%) e acima dos 80 anos (-8,95%) em rela&#231;&#227;o aos homens, que apresentaram respectivamente -33,10%, -10,04% e -0,85%. Nos outros grupos houve um discreto predom&#237;nio de redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade no sexo masculino (40-49 anos = -32,38%, 50-59 anos = -29,70%; 60-69 = -21,54%) sobre o feminino (respectivamente -32,06%, -26,77% e -21,51%).</p>
    <p>&#192; exce&#231;&#227;o dos grupos de 30-39 anos e 40-49 anos, nas demais faixas et&#225;rias houve flutua&#231;&#227;o no valor da taxa de mortalidade padronizada sugerindo tamb&#233;m o ajustamento aos dados uma fun&#231;&#227;o do segundo grau (<xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_port_tab05m">tab. 5</xref>).</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <table-wrap id="aop03812_port_tab05m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt05.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    </p>
    <p>O gr&#225;fico 3 mostra a curva de tend&#234;ncia de regress&#227;o em ambos os sexos de acordo a com a faixa et&#225;ria. Observa-se que entre 30 e 49 anos houve tend&#234;ncia de redu&#231;&#227;o cont&#237;nua e linear da taxa de mortalidade padronizada/100.000 no per&#237;odo avaliado, ao contr&#225;rio dos demais grupos, que mostraram oscila&#231;&#245;es durante o per&#237;odo avaliado, mas culminando com uma efetiva diminui&#231;&#227;o dos valores a partir do ponto de m&#225;ximo.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Discuss&#227;o</bold>
    </p>
    <p>O AVC &#233; uma das principais causas de mortes e invalidez no mundo, sendo referido que em 2005 ocasionou cerca de 5,7 milh&#245;es de &#243;bitos, dos quais 87% ocorreram em pa&#237;ses de renda m&#233;dia e baixa<sup>19</sup>. Neste trabalho, observa-se um aumento significativo no n&#250;mero de mortes por AVC comparando o ano 2009 com 2000, especialmente no sexo feminino, embora os n&#250;meros absolutos de &#243;bitos entre os homens tenha sido maior do que entre as mulheres. &#201; referida por Lotufo<sup>12</sup> uma elevada carga de mortalidade por AVC no Brasil ao final da d&#233;cada de 1980, maior at&#233; do que as encontradas em pa&#237;ses desenvolvidos. O autor tamb&#233;m relata que, considerando todas as causas de &#243;bitos no Brasil, o AVC se constituiu na principal delas, ultrapassando a doen&#231;a card&#237;aca coronariana. Este estudo, ao comparar 2009 e 2000 e considerando todas as causas de &#243;bitos, mostra que o AVC foi o respons&#225;vel por 10,70% das mortes em 2000, e por 10,18% em 2009. As mulheres apresentaram valores maiores em 2000 (M = 12,07%; H = 9,65%) e em 2009 (M = 11,38%; H = 9,21%) (dados n&#227;o mostrados), sendo semelhantes aos referido pela Organiza&#231;&#227;o Pan-Americana de Sa&#250;de (Opas)<sup>20</sup>. </p>
    <p>A redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC come&#231;ou em meados da d&#233;cada de 1960 e foi estabilizada ao final do s&#233;culo XX<sup>21-24</sup>. Esse decl&#237;nio foi mais acentuado nos Estados Unidos, no Canad&#225;, na Austr&#225;lia, nos pa&#237;ses da Europa ocidental e no Jap&#227;o<sup>23-26</sup>, enquanto na Am&#233;rica do Sul e no Leste Europeu as taxas s&#227;o mais elevadas e ainda mostram um crescimento na Europa oriental<sup>23-27</sup>. O Brasil se insere no contexto da redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC com valores semelhantes aos dos pa&#237;ses em desenvolvimento<sup>11,12,28</sup>, apresentando as maiores taxas quando comparado aos pa&#237;ses da Am&#233;rica Latina<sup>12</sup> e Am&#233;rica do Sul<sup>29</sup>. </p>
    <p>No presente estudo, observa-se que essa tend&#234;ncia de redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC referida no s&#233;culo XX continuou na primeira d&#233;cada do s&#233;culo XXI. A taxa de mortalidade bruta mostrou uma discreta diminui&#231;&#227;o, que foi mais evidente no sexo masculino e semelhante &#224; encontrada por Soares e cols.<sup>30</sup>, enquanto a taxa de mortalidade padronizada mostrou uma redu&#231;&#227;o mais acentuada, especialmente entre as mulheres, corroborando os resultados de outros trabalhos<sup>6,28,30-32</sup>.</p>
    <p>Essa queda da taxa de mortalidade por AVC &#233; bem observada quando se compara o ano 2009 com 2000, pois durante o per&#237;odo aconteceram flutua&#231;&#245;es dos valores dessas taxas. Observamos que o ano 2006 foi o que apresentou os maiores valores de incid&#234;ncia de &#243;bitos e das taxas de mortalidade. De fato, ao compararmos os anos 2006 com 2005, notamos que o aumento no n&#250;mero de mortes foi muito superior (homens = 7,12%; mulheres = 7,37%; ambos = 7,25%) &#224; eleva&#231;&#227;o do crescimento da popula&#231;&#227;o no mesmo per&#237;odo (homens = 1,36%; mulheres = 1,35%; ambos = 1,36%), o que n&#227;o aconteceu nos demais anos.</p>
    <p>Mesmo constatada na presente pesquisa essa tend&#234;ncia de redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC no Brasil, os valores continuam elevados, sendo superiores aos dos pa&#237;ses desenvolvidos, aos da Am&#233;rica do Sul, sendo ainda considerada a quarta maior taxa entre todos os pa&#237;ses da Am&#233;rica Latina, o que tamb&#233;m foi referido em outros trabalhos<sup>8,20,32</sup>.</p>
    <p>Os motivos para explicar a redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC est&#227;o intimamente ligados &#224; incid&#234;ncia e letalidade da doen&#231;a. A incid&#234;ncia est&#225; relacionada aos fatores de risco como a hipertens&#227;o arterial, diabetes, obesidade, fumo, &#237;ndice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH), entre outros, enquanto a letalidade avalia a efic&#225;cia do tratamento institu&#237;do. O controle dos fatores de risco, a preven&#231;&#227;o prim&#225;ria e secund&#225;ria das doen&#231;as circulat&#243;rias e a melhoria das condi&#231;&#245;es socioecon&#244;micas da popula&#231;&#227;o podem levar a uma queda da mortalidade. Al&#233;m disso, os procedimentos de alta tecnologia (angioplastias), maior n&#250;mero de equipamentos nos hospitais para o diagn&#243;stico mais preciso (tomografia computadorizada, resson&#226;ncia nuclear magn&#233;tica) e atendimentos mais r&#225;pidos tamb&#233;m ajudam a reduzir a mortalidade. No entanto, pelas suas dimens&#245;es, no Brasil h&#225; uma grande desigualdade regional, al&#233;m de os recursos destinados &#224; sa&#250;de p&#250;blica serem escassos, n&#227;o sendo poss&#237;vel que a popula&#231;&#227;o de algumas localidades seja contemplada com esses procedimentos.</p>
    <p>Deve-se refletir tamb&#233;m sobre os dados populacionais e de &#243;bitos, que nem sempre podem corresponder &#224; realidade. N&#227;o h&#225; d&#250;vida de que os estudos populacionais apresentam resultados mais pr&#243;ximos &#224; realidade do que os baseados em dados secund&#225;rios. No entanto, deve-se ressaltar que os dados secund&#225;rios s&#227;o oficiais e provenientes do Minist&#233;rio da Sa&#250;de, e mesmo contendo provavelmente subnotifica&#231;&#245;es, s&#227;o os utilizados para a elabora&#231;&#227;o de pol&#237;ticas p&#250;blicas, e dessa forma devem ser considerados. &#201; poss&#237;vel que essas subnotifica&#231;&#245;es ou &#243;bitos por causas mal definidas sejam mais observadas entre os idosos, especialmente pela particularidade da coexist&#234;ncia de v&#225;rias doen&#231;as cr&#244;nicas. Segundo Jorge e cols.<sup>4</sup>, houve uma redu&#231;&#227;o importante na propor&#231;&#227;o de mortes por causas mal definidas entre 1996 e 2005, sendo, no entanto, registrados valores superiores a 20% nas regi&#245;es Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Utilizando o banco de dados do Datasus<sup>17</sup> ampliamos essa avalia&#231;&#227;o at&#233; 2009 e notamos que a regi&#227;o Norte permanece ainda com percentual elevado (15%), enquanto as demais regi&#245;es apresentam valores abaixo de 10%, embora considerados ainda expressivos. Concordamos com Jorge e cols.<sup>4</sup> quanto ao uso inadequado de termos como "parada card&#237;aca", "fal&#234;ncia de m&#250;ltiplos &#243;rg&#227;os", "caquexia" e outros, no preenchimento dos atestados de &#243;bitos, muitas vezes em casos com diagn&#243;sticos j&#225; definidos, que comprometem uma avalia&#231;&#227;o mais espec&#237;fica das causas de mortes.</p>
    <p>Assim, torna-se necess&#225;ria a conscientiza&#231;&#227;o dos profissionais da &#225;rea de sa&#250;de para o preenchimento correto de formul&#225;rios, atestados ou qualquer outro documento que sejam importantes na elabora&#231;&#227;o de trabalhos cient&#237;ficos e na implementa&#231;&#227;o de programas desenvolvidos pelo governo visando a melhoria da qualidade de vida da popula&#231;&#227;o.</p>
    <p>
      <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_port_gra03am">
        <p content-type="break">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-e01.jpg"/></p>
        <p content-type="break"> Gr&#225;fico 3a - clique para ampliar</p>
      </xref>
    </p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <fig id="aop03812_port_gra03am">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf03.jpg"/></fig>
    </p>
    <p>
      <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_port_gra03bm">
        <p content-type="break">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-e02.jpg"/></p>
        <p content-type="break"> Gr&#225;fico 3b - clique para ampliar</p>
      </xref>
    </p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <fig id="aop03812_port_gra03bm">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf04.jpg"/></fig>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>Conclus&#227;o</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Os resultados deste estudo mostram que houve uma tend&#234;ncia de queda na taxa de mortalidade por AVC quando comparados os anos de 2009 e 2000, e entre 30 e 49 anos de idade essa redu&#231;&#227;o foi linear, enquanto nas demais houve oscila&#231;&#245;es no per&#237;odo, culminando com um decr&#233;scimo a partir de um determinado ponto.</p>
    <p>Os achados mostraram que a redu&#231;&#227;o da taxa de mortalidade por AVC no per&#237;odo estudado foi mais acentuada no sexo feminino.</p>
    <p>O AVC j&#225; &#233; um problema de sa&#250;de p&#250;blica, que poder&#225; se agravar se n&#227;o houver uma continuidade na melhoria das condi&#231;&#245;es socioecon&#244;micas, educativas, qualidade do atendimento hospitalar, controle prim&#225;rio e secund&#225;rio dos fatores de risco.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Agradecimentos</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Agradecemos ao Professor Lauro Boechat a ajuda nas an&#225;lises estat&#237;sticas.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Potencial Conflito de Interesses</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Declaro n&#227;o haver conflito de interesses pertinentes.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Fontes de Financiamento</bold>
    </p>
    <p>O presente estudo n&#227;o teve fontes de financiamento externas.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Vincula&#231;&#227;o Acad&#234;mica</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Este artigo &#233; parte de tese de Doutorado de C&#233;lia Regina Garritano pela Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.</p>
    <p>
      <fn id="not" fn-type="corresp">
        <label>
          <bold>Correspond&#234;ncia:</bold>
        </label>
        <p> C&#233;lia Regina Garritano </p>
        <p> Rua Uruguai, 124/402 - Tijuca </p>
        <p> 20510-060 - Rio de Janeiro, RJ - Brasil </p>
        <p> E-mail: </p>
        <p>
          <email xlink:href="cgarritano@oi.com.br">cgarritano@oi.com.br</email>
        </p>
      </fn>
    </p>
    <p>Artigo recebido em 15/08/11; revisado recebido em 16/08/11; aceito em 14/12/11.</p>
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  <sub-article article-type="translation" id="TRen" xml:lang="en">
    <front-stub>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Original Articles</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="en">Analysis of the mortality trend due to cerebrovascular accident in Brazil in the XXI century</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>BACKGROUND: Although it is the second leading cause of deaths worldwide, the cerebrovascular accident (CVA) has shown a significant reduction in mortality rates in recent decades. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trend of CVA mortality rate in Brazil, in both sexes, older than 30 years old, between 2000 and 2009. METHODS: Population data were obtained from the database of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and deaths through the Mortality Information System of the Health Surveillance Secretariat of the Ministry of Health, and included codes I60 to I69 according to 10th International Classification of Diseases. We calculated the incidence of deaths/1,000 inhabitants, gross and standardized mortality rates /100,000 inhabitants. The modeling of the trend of rates was performed using regression models. RESULTS: There was an increase in mortality until 2006, followed by a decline until 2009, when the incidence was the lowest. Comparing the years 2000 and 2009, there is a downward trend in standardized mortality rate in both sexes (male = -14.69% and female = -17%) and total (-14.99%), with fluctuations during the period. Between 30 and 49 years in both sexes, there was a trend of continuous and linear decrease in mortality rate, while the other age groups showed a curvilinear function, leading to an effective decrease in values. CONCLUSION: There was a downward trend in mortality in all age groups and both sexes. The reduction in gross mortality rate was more pronounced in males, while the standardized mortality rate showed a greater reduction in females.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>Stroke</kwd>
        <kwd>epidemiology</kwd>
        <kwd>Brazil</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </front-stub>
    <body>
      <p>
        <fn id="nota-body2">
          <label>
            <bold>Analysis of the mortality trend due to cerebrovascular accident in Brazil in the XXI century</bold>
          </label>
          <p>
            <bold>C&#233;lia Regina Garritano<sup>I,III</sup>; Paula Mendes Luz<sup>II</sup>; Maria Lucia Elias Pires<sup>I,III</sup>; Maria Teresa Serrano Barbosa<sup>I,III</sup>; Keila Moreira Batista<sup>III</sup></bold>
          </p>
        </fn>
      </p>
      <p><sup>I</sup>Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro</p>
      <p><sup>II</sup>Instituto de Pesquisa Cl&#237;nica Evandro Chagas - Funda&#231;&#227;o Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ</p>
      <p><sup>III</sup>Universidade Federal do Vale de S&#227;o Francisco, Petrolina, PE, Brazil</p>
      <p>Mailing Address</p>
      <p>
        <bold>ABSTRACT</bold>
      </p>
      <p><bold>BACKGROUND:</bold> Although it is the second leading cause of deaths worldwide, the cerebrovascular accident (CVA) has shown a significant reduction in mortality rates in recent decades.</p>
      <p><bold>OBJECTIVE:</bold> To evaluate the trend of CVA mortality rate in Brazil, in both sexes, older than 30 years old, between 2000 and 2009.</p>
      <p><bold>METHODS:</bold> Population data were obtained from the database of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and deaths through the Mortality Information System of the Health Surveillance Secretariat of the Ministry of Health, and included codes I60 to I69 according to 10th International Classification of Diseases. We calculated the incidence of deaths/1,000 inhabitants, gross and standardized mortality rates /100,000 inhabitants. The modeling of the trend of rates was performed using regression models.</p>
      <p><bold>RESULTS:</bold> There was an increase in mortality until 2006, followed by a decline until 2009, when the incidence was the lowest. Comparing the years 2000 and 2009, there is a downward trend in standardized mortality rate in both sexes (male = -14.69% and female = -17%) and total (-14.99%), with fluctuations during the period. Between 30 and 49 years in both sexes, there was a trend of continuous and linear decrease in mortality rate, while the other age groups showed a curvilinear function, leading to an effective decrease in values.</p>
      <p><bold>CONCLUSION:</bold> There was a downward trend in mortality in all age groups and both sexes. The reduction in gross mortality rate was more pronounced in males, while the standardized mortality rate showed a greater reduction in females.</p>
      <p><bold>Keywords:</bold> Stroke/mortality; epidemiology; Brazil.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Introduction</bold>
      </p>
      <p>The number of individuals aged &gt; 60 years has significantly increased in recent decades in the world, with projections indicating that by 2050 this group will have approximately 1,900 million people<sup>1</sup>. In Brazil, this segment of the population grew by 33.65% over the period 2000 to 2009<sup>2</sup>, and with it, the chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have become predominant<sup>3,4</sup>, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD), which became the leading cause of death in both sexes in Brazil<sup>5,6</sup>. Within the CVD group, cerebrovascular accident (CVA) has become a major cause of death and disability and is considered the second leading cause of death in world<sup>7-10</sup>. Among all Latin American countries, Brazil is the one with the highest rates of CVA mortality and the main cause of death among women<sup>11</sup>. Even though there has been a decrease in mortality in recent decades, these rates remain very high<sup>7,8,12-15</sup>.</p>
      <p>The aim of this study is to analyze the trend of CVA mortality rates in Brazil (BR) between 2000 and 2009 in both sexes and in different age ranges. </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Methods</bold>
      </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Data collection</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Population data were obtained from the 2000 census and intercensal projections from 2001 to 2009 of the population living in Brazil, carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)<sup>16</sup>, and stratified by sex and age range at ten-year intervals, starting at 30 to 39 years to 80 years or older.</p>
      <p>The causes of death were selected according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 10) and codes I60 to I69 were included. The number of deaths was obtained through the Mortality Information System (SIM) of the Health Surveillance Secretariat of the Ministry of Health (Datasus)<sup>17</sup>.</p>
      <p>The incidence of deaths was calculated in relation to gender and in total/1,000 inhabitants. The gross mortality rate was calculated according to gender and age range, having as reference the estimated population for each age group and sex in the corresponding year<sup>16</sup>. To calculate the adjusted mortality, the direct method was used, having as the standard population the one described by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2000<sup>18</sup>. All calculations were performed with annual data between 2000 and 2009.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Statistical Methods</bold>
      </p>
      <p>For all estimated epidemiological measures, data concerning the incidence of deaths were plotted and the scatter plot showed that a linear or quadratic function should be adjusted. The coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) and the maximum point were determined in each quadratic function, and the years 2000 to 2009 were replaced by 0-9, respectively. The level of significance was set at 5% of probability (&#945; = 0.05).</p>
      <p>The graphical presentation of the trend of gross and standardized mortality rates by CVA/100,000 inhabitants was determined by scatter plot.</p>
      <p>Statistical analysis was performed using the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences V13.0 (SPSS Inc. Chicago, Illinois, USA) and StatDisk V 8.4 (Addison Wesley Longman Inc).</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Results</bold>
      </p>
      <p><xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1-body2">Table 1</xref> (a, b, c) shows the number of deaths from CVA, the population and the incidence of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in Brazil in the years 2000 to 2009, regarding gender and total numbers.</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab1-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt01-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>The tables show an increased incidence of deaths up to a certain year, followed by a decline until 2009, when it reaches the minimum value, suggesting the adjustment of data as a second-degree function, which provided that the functions shown in <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab02m-body2">table 2</xref>.</p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="aop03812_ing_tab02m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt02-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>The analysis of <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab02m-body2">Table 2</xref> shows that, statistically (p &lt; 0.05), the data indicate a quadratic function, where the peak incidence of deaths of the male and female sex is close to that of the year 2003, as well as in both sexes.</p>
      <p>Considering the absolute number of total deaths, there is a predominance of males (50.61%) over females (49.39%), but when comparing the years 2009 and 2000 there is a greater increase in the number of deaths among women (19.11 +%) when compared to men (+14.92%). Associating age and gender, the number of deaths among women showed a continuous rise with increasing age, whereas among men, the number of deaths in the group aged &gt; 80 years was lower than that in the group aged 70-79 years. </p>
      <p>The Gross mortality rate from CVA/100,000 inhabitants, comparing 2009 with 2000, showed a decline of 7.34%, with a greater reduction in males (-8.46%) than in females (- 6.13%). However, fluctuations occurred throughout the period, with the year 2006 showing the highest rates, especially in males. When analyzed by age, it is observed that these oscillations were more pronounced in the group aged &gt; 70 years or older, being more marked in males and that the decrease was continuous only in the range of 30-39 years among men and 30 - 49 and 60-69 years among women (data not shown). <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_ing_cha01m-body2">Chart 1</xref> shows the curve of the regression trend of the gross mortality rate from CVA /100,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2009 in both sexes and in total. </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <fig id="aop03812_ing_cha01m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf01-en.jpg"/></fig>
      </p>
      <p>The standardized mortality rate from stroke also showed a decrease when comparing the year 2009 with 2000, being in total -14.99%, -14.69% for the male sex and -17% for the female sex (<xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab03m-body2">Table 3</xref>) . </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="aop03812_ing_tab03m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt03-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>Data analysis of mortality rates between 2000 and 2009 in both sexes and in total showed a fluctuation of values, suggesting again the adjustment of data to a second degree function, shown in <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab04m-body2">Table 4</xref>. </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="aop03812_ing_tab04m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt04-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>By analyzing <xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab04m-body2">Table 4</xref> it can be stated statistically (p &lt;0.05) than the data indicate a quadratic function where the peak incidence of the standardized mortality among men occurred around the year 2002, while among women and in both sexes, it happened in 2003.</p>
      <p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_ing_cha02m-body2">Chart 2</xref> shows the curve of the regression trend of the standardized mortality rate from CVA/100,000 inhabitants in both sexes, according to gender in the studied period.</p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <fig id="aop03812_ing_cha02m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf02-en.jpg"/></fig>
      </p>
      <p>Considering age range and gender, and comparing the year 2009 with 2000, the standardized mortality rate for women showed a greater decline in the age groups of 30-39 years (-33.92%), 70-79 (-13.71 %) and &gt; 80 years (-8.95%) compared to men, who showed respectively -33.10% -10.04% and -0.85%. In other groups there was a slight predominance of decrease in the mortality rate in the male sex (40-49 years = -32.38%, 50-59 years = -29.70%, 60-69 = -21.54%) compared to females (respectively -32.06% -26.77% and -21.51%). </p>
      <p>Except for he age groups 30-39 years and 40-49 years, the other age groups showed a fluctuation in the standardized mortality rates, also suggesting the adjustment of data to a second degree function (<xref ref-type="table" rid="aop03812_ing_tab05m-body2">Table 5</xref>). </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="aop03812_ing_tab05m-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gt05-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>Chart 3 shows the curve of the regression trend for both sexes according to age range. It can be observed that between 30 and 49 years there was a continuous and linear downward trend of the standardized mortality rate /100,000 in the evaluated period, contrary to the other groups, which showed variations during the study period, but culminating in an effective decrease of the values from the maximum point.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Discussion</bold>
      </p>
      <p>CVA is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and it has been reported as the cause of approximately 5.7 million deaths in 2005, of which 87% occurred in middle and low-income countries<sup>19</sup>. This study shows a significant increase in deaths from CVA when comparing the year 2009 with 2000, especially in females, although the absolute numbers of deaths among men was higher than among women. Lotufo<sup>12</sup> reported a high rate of mortality from CVA in Brazil in the late 1980s, even higher than those found in developed countries. The author also reports that, considering all causes of death in Brazil, CVA has become the main one, bypassing coronary heart disease. This study, when comparing the year 2009 and 2000 and taking into account all causes of death, shows that CVA was responsible for 10.70% of the deaths in 2000 and 10.18% in 2009. Women had higher values in 2000 (F = 12.07%, M = 9.65%) and 2009 (F = 11.38%, M = 9.21%) (data not shown), data similar to those reported by the Pan American Health Organization (Opas)<sup>20</sup>. </p>
      <p>The reduction in CVA mortality began in the mid-1960s and was stabilized at the end of the twentieth century<sup>21-24</sup>. This decline was more pronounced in the United States, Canada, Australia, the Western Europe countries and Japan<sup>23-26</sup>, whereas the rates are higher in South America and Eastern Europe and still increasing in Eastern Europe countries<sup>23-27</sup>. Brazil is included in the context of decrease in the rates of CVA mortality with values that are similar to those of developing countries<sup>11,12.28</sup>, showing the highest rates when compared to countries in Latin America<sup>12</sup> and South America<sup>29</sup>. </p>
      <p>In this study, we observed that this trend of reduction in CVA mortality in the twentieth century continued into the first decade of this century. The gross mortality rate showed a slight decrease, which was more evident in males, similar to that found by Smith et al<sup>30</sup>, while the standardized mortality rate showed a greater reduction, especially among women, corroborating the results of other studies<sup>6,28,30-32</sup>. </p>
      <p>This decline in CVA mortality is well observed when comparing 2009 with 2000, as the values of these rates varied during this period. We observe that the year 2006 showed the highest values of the incidence of deaths and mortality rates. In fact, when comparing the years 2006 and 2005, we observe that the increase in the number of deaths was much higher (men = 7.12%, females = 7.37%, both = 7.25%) than the increase in population growth during the same period (men = 1.36%, females = 1.35%, both = 1.36%), which did not happen in other years. </p>
      <p>Even as the present study confirmed this trend of decrease in CVA mortality in Brazil, the numbers remain high, being higher than those of developed countries and of countries in South America, being considered the four-highest rate among all Latin American countries, which was also reported in other studies<sup>8,20,32</sup>.</p>
      <p>The reasons to explain the reduction in CVA mortality are closely related to the incidence and mortality of the disease. The incidence is related to risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, smoking, human development index (HDI), among others, while the mortality rate evaluates the effectiveness of the treatment. The control of risk factors, the primary and secondary prevention of circulatory diseases and improving the socioeconomic conditions of the population may lead to a decrease in mortality. In addition, the high-tech procedures (angioplasty), a larger number of equipment in hospitals for more accurate diagnosis (CT, MRI) and faster care also help to reduce mortality. However, due to its dimensions, Brazil shows great regional inequality, and healthcare resources are scarce; thus the population of some areas might not be treated with these procedures.</p>
      <p>
        <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_ing_cha03am-body2">
          <p content-type="break">
            <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-e01-en.jpg"/></p>
          <p content-type="break"> Chart 3a - Click to enlarge</p>
        </xref>
      </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <fig id="aop03812_ing_cha03am-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf03-en.jpg"/></fig>
      </p>
      <p>
        <xref ref-type="fig" rid="aop03812_ing_cha03bm-body2">
          <p content-type="break">
            <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-e02-en.jpg"/></p>
          <p content-type="break"> Chart 3b - Click to enlarge</p>
        </xref>
      </p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <fig id="aop03812_ing_cha03bm-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-98-06-0519-00041-gf04-en.jpg"/></fig>
      </p>
      <p>One should also reflect on the death and population data, which may not always correspond to reality. There is no doubt that population studies show results closer to reality than those based on secondary data. However, it should be noted that the secondary data are official and originate from the Ministry of Health, and even though they might contain flaws, they are used for the creation of public policies, and thus should be considered. It is possible that the underreporting or deaths due to ill-defined causes are most often observed among the elderly, especially due to the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases.</p>
      <p>According to Jorge et al<sup>4</sup>, there was a significant decrease in the proportion of deaths due to ill-defined causes between 1996 and 2005; however, values higher than 20% were recorded in the North and Northeast Brazil. Using the Datasus<sup>17</sup> database, we extended this evaluation to 2009 and observed that the North remains with a high percentage (15%), while other regions have values below 10%, although they are still considered significant. We agree with Jorge et al<sup>4</sup> about the inappropriate use of terms such as "cardiac arrest", "multiple organ failure", "cachexia" and others, when filling out death certificates, often in cases with diagnosis that have been already defined, which compromise a more specific evaluation of the causes of deaths.</p>
      <p>Thus, it becomes necessary to raise awareness among health professionals for the correct filling out of forms, certificates or other documents, which are important in the development of scientific research and implementation of government programs designed to improve the quality of life of the population.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Conclusion</bold>
      </p>
      <p>The results of this study show that there was a downward trend in mortality due to CVA when comparing the years 2009 and 2000 and that between 30 and 49 years of age this reduction was linear, while in the others there were fluctuations during the period, culminating in a decrease from a certain point.</p>
      <p>The findings showed that the reduction in CVA mortality during the study period was more pronounced in females.</p>
      <p>CVA is a public health problem that could worsen if there is no continuity in the improvement of socioeconomic conditions, education, quality of hospital care, primary and secondary control of risk factors.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Acknowledgements</bold>
      </p>
      <p>We thank Professor Lauro Boechat for his help with the statistical analyses.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Potential Conflict of Interest</bold>
      </p>
      <p>No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Sources of Funding</bold>
      </p>
      <p>There were no external funding sources for this study.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Study Association</bold>
      </p>
      <p>This article is part of the thesis of Doctoral submitted by C&#233;lia Regina Garritano, from Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>References</bold>
      </p>
    </body>
  </sub-article>
</article>
