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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">abc</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">Arq. Bras. Cardiol.</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">0066-782X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1678-4170</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia - SBC</publisher-name>
        <publisher-loc>S&#227;o Paulo, SP, Brazil</publisher-loc>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v3">TzRJRyJs94XJfWVJgCJxgvs</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="other">00012</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v2">S0066-782X2009000400012</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id" specific-use="scielo-v1">S0066-782X(09)09200412</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1590/S0066-782X2009000400012</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Artigos Originais</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Valida&#231;&#227;o de um novo escore de risco cir&#250;rgico para cirurgia valvar: VMCP</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Grinberg</surname>
            <given-names>Max</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Jonke</surname>
            <given-names>V&#237;vian Masutti</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Sampaio</surname>
            <given-names>Roney Orismar</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Spina</surname>
            <given-names>Guilherme Sobreira</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Tarasoutchi</surname>
            <given-names>Flavio</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff01"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff01">
        <addr-line>
          <named-content content-type="city">S&#227;o Paulo</named-content>
          <named-content content-type="state">S&#227;o Paulo</named-content>
        </addr-line>
        <institution content-type="orgname">Universidade de S&#227;o Paulo</institution>
        <institution content-type="orgdiv1">Faculdade de Medicina </institution>
        <institution content-type="orgdiv2">Instituto do Cora&#231;&#227;o</institution>
        <country country="BR">Brazil</country>
      </aff>
      <pub-date date-type="collection" publication-format="electronic">
        <month>04</month>
        <year>2009</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>92</volume>
      <issue>4</issue>
      <fpage>320</fpage>
      <lpage>325</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="rev-recd">
          <day>08</day>
          <month>08</month>
          <year>2008</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="received">
          <day>19</day>
          <month>06</month>
          <year>2008</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="accepted">
          <day>19</day>
          <month>08</month>
          <year>2008</year>
        </date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" xml:lang="en">
          <license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>FUNDAMENTO: Alguns estudos desenvolveram escores para avaliar o risco cir&#250;rgico, particularmente o EuroSCORE que, entretanto, &#233; complexo e trabalhoso. Sugerimos um escore novo e simples, mais adequado para a pr&#225;tica cl&#237;nica e para a avalia&#231;&#227;o de risco cir&#250;rgico em pacientes valvopatas. OBJETIVO: Este estudo foi realizado para criar e validar um escore simples e pr&#225;tico para predizer mortalidade e morbidade em cirurgia valvar. M&#201;TODOS: Coletamos dados hospitalares de 764 pacientes e realizamos a valida&#231;&#227;o do escore, utilizando dois modelos estat&#237;sticos: &#243;bito (= mortalidade) e tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar (TIH) &gt; 10 dias (= morbidade). O escore foi composto de quatro &#237;ndices (V [les&#227;o valvar], M [fun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica], C [doen&#231;a arterial coronariana] e P [press&#227;o da art&#233;ria pulmonar]). Estabelecemos um valor de corte para o escore, e foram utilizadas an&#225;lises uni e multivariada para confirmar se o escore seria capaz de predizer mortalidade e morbidade. Tamb&#233;m estudamos se havia associa&#231;&#227;o com outros fatores de risco. RESULTADOS: O escore foi validado, com boa consist&#234;ncia interna (0,65), e o melhor valor de corte para mortalidade e morbidade foi 8. O escore com valor &gt; 8 pode predizer TIH &gt; 10 dias (odds ratio (OR) = 1,7 p=0,006), e um maior risco de &#243;bito ao menos na an&#225;lise univariada (p=0,049). Entretanto, o risco de &#243;bito n&#227;o foi previs&#237;vel na an&#225;lise multivariada (p=0,258). CONCLUS&#195;O: O escore VMCP &gt; 8 pode predizer TIH &gt; 10 dias e pode ser usado como uma nova ferramenta para o seguimento de pacientes portadores de valvopatia submetidos a cirurgia.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="pt" kwd-group-type="author-generated">
        <kwd>Avalia&#231;&#227;o de risco</kwd>
        <kwd>procedimentos cir&#250;rgicos card&#237;acos</kwd>
        <kwd>valvas card&#237;acas</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub">
        <day>23</day>
        <month>06</month>
        <year>2009</year>
      </pub-date>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <p>ARTIGO ORIGINAL </p>
    <p> VALVOPATIAS</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Valida&#231;&#227;o de um novo escore de risco cir&#250;rgico para cirurgia valvar: VMCP</bold>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>Max Grinberg, V&#237;vian Masutti Jonke, Roney Orismar Sampaio, Guilherme Sobreira Spina, Flavio Tarasoutchi</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Instituto do Cora&#231;&#227;o da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de S&#227;o Paulo (InCorFMUSP), S&#227;o Paulo, SP - Brasil</p>
    <p>
      <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="add1">Correspond&#234;ncia</xref>
    </p>
    <p>
      <bold>RESUMO</bold>
    </p>
    <p><bold>FUNDAMENTO:</bold> Alguns estudos desenvolveram escores para avaliar o risco cir&#250;rgico, particularmente o EuroSCORE que, entretanto, &#233; complexo e trabalhoso. Sugerimos um escore novo e simples, mais adequado para a pr&#225;tica cl&#237;nica e para a avalia&#231;&#227;o de risco cir&#250;rgico em pacientes valvopatas. </p>
    <p><bold>OBJETIVO:</bold> Este estudo foi realizado para criar e validar um escore simples e pr&#225;tico para predizer mortalidade e morbidade em cirurgia valvar. </p>
    <p><bold>M&#201;TODOS:</bold> Coletamos dados hospitalares de 764 pacientes e realizamos a valida&#231;&#227;o do escore, utilizando dois modelos estat&#237;sticos: &#243;bito (= mortalidade) e tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar (TIH) &gt; 10 dias (= morbidade). O escore foi composto de quatro &#237;ndices (V [les&#227;o valvar], M [fun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica], C [doen&#231;a arterial coronariana] e P [press&#227;o da art&#233;ria pulmonar]). Estabelecemos um valor de corte para o escore, e foram utilizadas an&#225;lises uni e multivariada para confirmar se o escore seria capaz de predizer mortalidade e morbidade. Tamb&#233;m estudamos se havia associa&#231;&#227;o com outros fatores de risco. </p>
    <p><bold>RESULTADOS:</bold> O escore foi validado, com boa consist&#234;ncia interna (0,65), e o melhor valor de corte para mortalidade e morbidade foi 8. O escore com valor &gt; 8 pode predizer TIH &gt; 10 dias (<italic>odds ratio</italic> (OR) = 1,7 p=0,006), e um maior risco de &#243;bito ao menos na an&#225;lise univariada (p=0,049). Entretanto, o risco de &#243;bito n&#227;o foi previs&#237;vel na an&#225;lise multivariada (p=0,258). </p>
    <p><bold>CONCLUS&#195;O:</bold> O escore VMCP &gt; 8 pode predizer TIH &gt; 10 dias e pode ser usado como uma nova ferramenta para o seguimento de pacientes portadores de valvopatia submetidos a cirurgia. </p>
    <p><bold>Palavras-chave:</bold> Avalia&#231;&#227;o de risco, procedimentos cir&#250;rgicos card&#237;acos, valvas card&#237;acas/cirurgia.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Introdu&#231;&#227;o</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Recentemente, alguns estudos v&#234;m mostrado mudan&#231;as no manejo de portadores de valvopatia. Um deles mostrou uma associa&#231;&#227;o entre esclerose da valva a&#243;rtica e mortalidade e morbidade cardiovascular, mesmo quando assintom&#225;tica<sup>1</sup>. Na regurgita&#231;&#227;o mitral assintom&#225;tica<sup>2</sup>, um orif&#237;cio efetivo de regurgita&#231;&#227;o de pelo menos 40 mm<sup>2</sup> &#233; um bom preditor do resultado cl&#237;nico no seguimento m&#233;dico. Por&#233;m, h&#225; dificuldades na defini&#231;&#227;o do melhor momento para indicar cirurgia em pacientes portadores de valvopatia e para predizer mortalidade e morbidade cir&#250;rgicas.</p>
    <p>As valvopatias de etiologia reum&#225;tica permanecem prevalentes nos pa&#237;ses em desenvolvimento<sup>3</sup>. Em raz&#227;o dessa peculiaridade, muitos pacientes s&#227;o submetidos a cirurgia muito jovens<sup>4</sup> e freq&#252;entemente necessitam de reopera&#231;&#245;es durante a hist&#243;ria natural da doen&#231;a.</p>
    <p>Reconhecemos tr&#234;s fases na hist&#243;ria natural dos portadores de valvopatia: assintom&#225;tico, sintom&#225;tico e uma "fase de transi&#231;&#227;o", que geralmente &#233; dif&#237;cil de ser identificada. V&#225;rias modifica&#231;&#245;es adaptativas ocorrem, como hipertrofia e dilata&#231;&#227;o das c&#226;maras card&#237;acas, e surgem marcadores de doen&#231;a avan&#231;ada, como hipertens&#227;o pulmonar e fibrila&#231;&#227;o atrial.</p>
    <p>O surgimento de sintomas &#233; uma evid&#234;ncia de indica&#231;&#227;o para cirurgia<sup>4</sup>, mas permanece controverso o quanto os sintomas pr&#233;-operat&#243;rios t&#234;m influ&#234;ncia negativa na sobrevida p&#243;s-operat&#243;ria<sup>5,6</sup>. Alguns estudos<sup>6,7</sup>, por&#233;m, t&#234;m mostrado que indicar cirurgia em pacientes selecionados com sintomas m&#237;nimos pode ser ben&#233;fico. Nesse grupo, ressaltamos a import&#226;ncia da cirurgia para portadores de valvopatia com disfun&#231;&#227;o ventricular esquerda<sup>7,8</sup>.</p>
    <p>Outros estudos<sup>9-11</sup> usaram alguns par&#226;metros para avaliar risco cir&#250;rgico em popula&#231;&#245;es de cardiopatas. O EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> &#233; um instrumento excelente para avalia&#231;&#227;o de risco em cirurgias card&#237;acas. Entretanto, esse escore foi validado em uma popula&#231;&#227;o mais velha e com incid&#234;ncia muito baixa de doen&#231;a reum&#225;tica, al&#233;m de n&#227;o ser espec&#237;fico para cirurgia valvar. </p>
    <p>Baseado nisso, idealizamos um escore simplificado baseado em quatro situa&#231;&#245;es cr&#237;ticas do valvopata, denominado VMCP. Assim, o escore VMCP (V [les&#227;o valvar], M [fun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica], C [doen&#231;a arterial coronariana] e P [press&#227;o da art&#233;ria pulmonar]) foi utilizado para identificar pacientes com doen&#231;a pr&#233;-operat&#243;ria de maior gravidade e para correlacionar com mortalidade e morbidade p&#243;s-operat&#243;rias em cirurgia valvar.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>M&#233;todos</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Analisamos 927 prontu&#225;rios m&#233;dicos de pacientes consecutivos que foram submetidos a cirurgia valvar no nosso Servi&#231;o. Foram exclu&#237;dos 159 pacientes por terem dados incompletos, resultando em uma amostra final de 768 pacientes. A coleta de dados de prontu&#225;rios m&#233;dicos foi realizada retrospectivamente, e o comit&#234; de pesquisa humana de nossa institui&#231;&#227;o aprovou o protocolo do estudo.</p>
    <p>A m&#233;dia de idade dessa coorte foi de 50&#177;17 anos, 55% eram do sexo feminino, 60% tinham etiologia reum&#225;tica e 38% das cirurgias foram reopera&#231;&#245;es. A <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1">tabela 1</xref> resume todos os dados cl&#237;nicos e demogr&#225;ficos dos pacientes.</p>
    <table-wrap id="tab1">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt01.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <p>Avaliamos mortalidade e morbidade cir&#250;rgicas, al&#233;m da presen&#231;a de co-morbidades e par&#226;metros intra-hospitalares. Os par&#226;metros estudados inclu&#237;ram tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar (TIH), tempo de perman&#234;ncia em UTI, tempo de circula&#231;&#227;o extracorp&#243;rea, relato do procedimento cir&#250;rgico, cirurgia de emerg&#234;ncia, reopera&#231;&#227;o e complica&#231;&#245;es pr&#233; e p&#243;s-operat&#243;rias.</p>
    <p>Mortalidade foi definida como &#243;bito intra-operat&#243;rio ou &#243;bito durante o tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar do paciente. Morbidade foi definida baseada no tempo m&#233;dio de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar de nossa institui&#231;&#227;o (10 dias) e foi considerada como tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar maior do que 10 dias.</p>
    <p>Em rela&#231;&#227;o &#224;s co-morbidades pr&#233;-operat&#243;rias estudadas foram consideradas: hipertens&#227;o (definida como press&#227;o arterial <underline>&gt;</underline> 140/90 mmHg), diabetes (glicemia de jejum <underline>&gt;</underline> 126 mg/dl), febre reum&#225;tica, tabagismo (se fumava ou n&#227;o, e a quantidade de cigarros por dia), dislipidemia (colesterol total &gt; 240 mg/dl e LDL &gt; 160 mg/dl), insufici&#234;ncia renal (creatinina &gt; 2 mg/dl), insufici&#234;ncia card&#237;aca, acidente vascular cerebral e fibrila&#231;&#227;o atrial. </p>
    <p>Como objetivo de criar um &#237;ndice simples e pr&#225;tico, o &#237;ndice e escore VMCP, utilizamos quatro par&#226;metros considerados fundamentais para caracterizar a doen&#231;a valvar (<xref ref-type="table" rid="a12tab02m">tab.2</xref>): V (les&#227;o valvar), M (fun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica), C (doen&#231;a arterial coronariana) e P (press&#227;o da art&#233;ria pulmonar). Cada um desses par&#226;metros foi classificado em quatro categorias, e a soma da pontua&#231;&#227;o dos quatro par&#226;metros do &#237;ndice, por exemplo, V3M2C2P2, comp&#245;e o escore 9 (3+2+2+2).</p>
    <p content-type="asset">
      <table-wrap id="a12tab02m">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt02.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    </p>
    <p>Os crit&#233;rios utilizados para a classifica&#231;&#227;o de cada vari&#225;vel inclu&#237;ram par&#226;metros cl&#237;nicos e laboratoriais usados na avalia&#231;&#227;o de rotina de pacientes portadores de valvopatia. A vari&#225;vel V foi baseada em hist&#243;ria, exame cl&#237;nico (presen&#231;a de sintomas e ausculta card&#237;aca) e diagn&#243;stico ecocardiogr&#225;fico (les&#227;o valvar &#250;nica ou m&#250;ltipla). Para a defini&#231;&#227;o de les&#227;o valvar discreta, moderada e grave, foram utilizados os crit&#233;rios descritos nas diretrizes de doen&#231;a valvar da <italic>American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology</italic><sup>14</sup>. Assim, por exemplo, a estenose mitral discreta foi considerada caso a &#225;rea valvar estivesse al&#233;m de 1,5 cm<sup>2</sup>. Em V4, foram consideradas, tamb&#233;m, les&#245;es de grau discreto, desde que o acometimento fosse multivalvar e o paciente fosse sintom&#225;tico. Quanto &#224; presen&#231;a de sintomas, foram considerados desde dispn&#233;ia (classe funcional I a IV) at&#233; angina e sinais de baixo d&#233;bito, como s&#237;ncope. A vari&#225;vel M usou a fun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica, avaliada por meio da fra&#231;&#227;o de eje&#231;&#227;o do ventr&#237;culo esquerdo, quantificada no ecocardiograma pelo m&#233;todo de Teichholz. A vari&#225;vel C analisou a circula&#231;&#227;o coronariana baseada na angiografia coronariana. Por fim, a vari&#225;vel P usou a press&#227;o da art&#233;ria pulmonar para avaliar a presen&#231;a e o grau de hipertens&#227;o pulmonar, avaliado indiretamente pela press&#227;o sist&#243;lica do ventr&#237;culo direito, quantificada por meio do ecocardiograma pela regurgita&#231;&#227;o tric&#250;spide.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>An&#225;lise estat&#237;stica</bold>
    </p>
    <p>A an&#225;lise estat&#237;stica foi realizada usando o software SPSS para Windows (vers&#227;o 13.0). Dados de vari&#225;veis cont&#237;nuas foram analisados com teste <italic>t</italic> e dados de vari&#225;veis categ&#243;ricas foram analisados com teste qui-quadrado. Vari&#225;veis cont&#237;nuas foram expressas por m&#233;dia &#177; desvio padr&#227;o (dp) e as vari&#225;veis categ&#243;ricas por n&#250;mero (porcentagem, %). Um valor de p&lt;0,05 foi considerado como estatisticamente significante. </p>
    <p>A consist&#234;ncia interna do escore foi avaliada com o alfa (Cronbach) e foi estimada a &#225;rea sob a curva. Para definir o ponto de corte do escore, foi utilizado o tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o m&#233;dio de nossa institui&#231;&#227;o (10 dias).</p>
    <p>Foram utilizadas curvas ROC para definir o valor de corte mais adequado para o escore para predizer tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o maior do que 10 dias e &#243;bito. A compara&#231;&#227;o das diferen&#231;as de m&#233;dias do escore para as vari&#225;veis cl&#237;nicas e demogr&#225;ficas foi realizada usando teste de Mann-Whitney.</p>
    <p>Para analisar os fatores de risco para &#243;bito e tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o &gt; 10 dias, usamos teste qui-quadrado e modelos de regress&#227;o log&#237;stica m&#250;ltipla. As vari&#225;veis dependentes da an&#225;lise foram &#243;bito e tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o &gt; 10 dias, e as vari&#225;veis independentes foram as vari&#225;veis cl&#237;nicas e demogr&#225;ficas analisadas. O ponto de corte usado para o escore foi 8. Ainda, foi usado o teste de Hosmer Lemeshow para um melhor desempenho do modelo.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Resultados</bold>
    </p>
    <p>A maioria dos pacientes era do sexo feminino (55%), 60% apresentavam valvopatia de etiologia reum&#225;tica e 38% das cirurgias foram reopera&#231;&#245;es (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1">tab.1</xref>). </p>
    <p>
      <bold>Valida&#231;&#227;o do escore</bold>
    </p>
    <p>A consist&#234;ncia interna foi boa (Alfa Cronbach) (= 0,65) para o escore, mostrando que os par&#226;metros usados para constituir o escore se correlacionaram. </p>
    <p>Usamos curvas ROC para definir o melhor valor de corte para o escore. Em rela&#231;&#227;o &#224; curva ROC, a &#225;rea sob a curva foi de 0,64 para &#243;bito (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">fig.1</xref>) e 0,61 para tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o maior do que 10 dias (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">fig.2</xref>) e, para ambos, o melhor ponto de corte foi 8. Ent&#227;o, o escore foi dividido em VMCP&lt; 8 e VMCP <underline>&gt;</underline> 8.</p>
    <fig id="fig1">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf01.jpg"/></fig>
    <fig id="fig2">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf02.jpg"/></fig>
    <p>Considerando o escore como uma vari&#225;vel quantitativa, foi encontrada diferen&#231;a significativa para as m&#233;dias do escore para: febre reum&#225;tica (7,5 x 7,8; p&lt; 0,001), insufici&#234;ncia renal (7,6 x 8,5; p&lt;0,001), fibrila&#231;&#227;o atrial (7,5 x 8,1; p&lt;0,001), reopera&#231;&#227;o (7,5 x 8,0; p&lt;0,001) e &#243;bito (7,6 x 8,4; p=0.002).</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Morbidade</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Na an&#225;lise univariada foi poss&#237;vel notar uma associa&#231;&#227;o significativa entre tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o &gt; 10 dias e algumas vari&#225;veis (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">tab.3</xref>), especialmente com o escore VMCP &gt; 8. Essa associa&#231;&#227;o manteve-se na an&#225;lise multivariada, mostrando que o escore VMCP &gt; 8 &#233; capaz de predizer tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o &gt; 10 dias, ou seja, maior morbidade. As outras vari&#225;veis: fibrila&#231;&#227;o atrial (<italic>Odds Ratio</italic> (OR) =2,2; p=0,001), febre reum&#225;tica (OR=1,7; p=0,005), dislipidemia (OR=1,9; p=0,039), tabagismo (OR=1,8; p=0,020), e endocardite pr&#233;via (OR=2.8; p=0.024) tamb&#233;m persistiram como fatores de risco para morbidade na an&#225;lise multivariada (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab4">tab.4</xref>).</p>
    <table-wrap id="tab3">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt03.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <table-wrap id="tab4">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt04.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <p>
      <bold>Mortalidade</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Para mortalidade, na an&#225;lise univariada houve associa&#231;&#227;o estatisticamente significativa entre algumas vari&#225;veis e &#243;bito (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab5">tab.5</xref>), incluindo o escore VMCP &gt; 8. Na an&#225;lise multivariada notamos um n&#250;mero maior de &#243;bitos relacionados &#224; insufici&#234;ncia renal (OR=5,6; p&lt;0,001), reopera&#231;&#227;o (OR=2,6; p=0,004), e diabetes (OR=3,0; p=0,014) (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab6">tab.6</xref>). Entretanto, na an&#225;lise multivariada, o escore VMCP n&#227;o foi significativo estatisticamente (p=0,258), mostrando apenas um pequeno aumento no <italic>Odds Ratio</italic> (1,46) e o intervalo de confian&#231;a 95% para esse passou pelo valor 1,0. Logo, o escore VMCP &gt; 8 n&#227;o pode ser considerado como um preditor de &#243;bito, e sim apenas um fator de risco para maior mortalidade.</p>
    <table-wrap id="tab5">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt05.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <table-wrap id="tab6">
      <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt06.jpg"/></table-wrap>
    <p>
      <bold>Discuss&#227;o</bold>
    </p>
    <p>As modifica&#231;&#245;es adaptativas resultam freq&#252;entemente em uma longa hist&#243;ria natural na maioria dos portadores de doen&#231;a valvar<sup>4,5</sup>. No decorrer dessa hist&#243;ria podem receber indica&#231;&#227;o cir&#250;rgica, muitas vezes fundamental para a melhoria dos sintomas<sup>4</sup>. Al&#233;m disso, a normalidade da fun&#231;&#227;o do ventr&#237;culo esquerdo &#233; essencial para uma melhor evolu&#231;&#227;o desses pacientes<sup>6,7</sup>.</p>
    <p>Em pa&#237;ses onde a etiologia reum&#225;tica<sup>3</sup> das valvopatias permanece como um s&#233;rio problema de sa&#250;de t&#234;m sido observadas algumas peculiaridades em compara&#231;&#227;o com pacientes com doen&#231;a valvar degenerativa. Esses pacientes apresentam m&#233;dia de idade menor (50&#177;17 anos)<sup>4</sup>, menor n&#250;mero de cirurgias valvares conservadoras e, portanto, um n&#250;mero maior de pacientes &#233; submetido &#224; reopera&#231;&#227;o (na nossa avalia&#231;&#227;o, aproximadamente 38%).</p>
    <p>O seguimento de rotina desses pacientes &#233; uma boa pr&#225;tica clinica para determinar quando &#233; o melhor momento para a cirurgia<sup>15,16</sup>. Aguardar os sintomas<sup>4,16</sup>, evitar diminui&#231;&#227;o irrevers&#237;vel da fun&#231;&#227;o do ventr&#237;culo esquerdo<sup>15</sup>, associada a outros crit&#233;rios conhecidos, definidos nos consensos de doen&#231;a valvar<sup>14</sup>, ajuda a determinar o momento mais adequado para indica&#231;&#227;o cir&#250;rgica. O melhor momento &#233; o momento em que o paciente ter&#225; o melhor progn&#243;stico precoce e tardio.</p>
    <p>Selecionamos quatro vari&#225;veis cl&#237;nicas e laboratoriais para caracterizar um momento espec&#237;fico da hist&#243;ria natural de um grupo de pacientes com doen&#231;a valvar, criando o &#237;ndice e escore VMCP.</p>
    <p>Esse escore mostrou ser uma importante ferramenta para predizer morbidade cir&#250;rgica em cirurgia valvar. Entre as vantagens do escore VMCP, est&#227;o sua simplicidade e f&#225;cil aplicabilidade. Entretanto, esse escore n&#227;o foi capaz de predizer mortalidade na an&#225;lise multivariada, talvez pelo pequeno tamanho da amostra. Esse fato, contudo, n&#227;o diminui seu valor como um interessante novo marcador de gravidade. Associado a outros par&#226;metros, foi poss&#237;vel observar que o escore VMCP &gt; 8 significa pacientes mais doentes e com prov&#225;vel pior progn&#243;stico. Esses pacientes precisam de cuidados m&#233;dicos mais intensivos, tanto durante sua interna&#231;&#227;o quanto ap&#243;s sua alta hospitalar. Logo, o escore VMCP &gt; 8 significa, ainda, hist&#243;ria natural mais avan&#231;ada.</p>
    <p>Esse estudo confirmou que a presen&#231;a de co-morbidades correspondeu a maior tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o e maior risco de &#243;bito. Al&#233;m disso, a presen&#231;a de diabetes, insufici&#234;ncia renal e reopera&#231;&#227;o aumenta o risco de &#243;bito, mas n&#227;o o tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o hospitalar.</p>
    <p>Encontramos fibrila&#231;&#227;o atrial, etiologia reum&#225;tica, dislipidemia, tabagismo e endocardite pr&#233;via como fatores de risco para tempo de interna&#231;&#227;o prolongado. Ao mesmo tempo, essas co-morbidades n&#227;o foram fatores de risco para &#243;bito.</p>
    <p>Os estudos sobre o EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> s&#227;o muito elegantes na an&#225;lise dos poss&#237;veis fatores de risco para maior morbidade e mortalidade cir&#250;rgicas. Esse escore usa alguns par&#226;metros cl&#237;nicos e laboratoriais, estimando a taxa de mortalidade pelo escore final. Como foi observado nesse estudo, perda da fun&#231;&#227;o renal, endocardite pr&#233;via, disfun&#231;&#227;o mioc&#225;rdica, hipertens&#227;o pulmonar e cirurgia card&#237;aca pr&#233;via s&#227;o tamb&#233;m par&#226;metros de pior progn&#243;stico no EuroSCORE.</p>
    <p>Alguns par&#226;metros como idade, hiperglicemia e n&#237;vel s&#233;rico de creatinina podem aumentar o grau de predi&#231;&#227;o do escore VMCP, mas a aus&#234;ncia deles n&#227;o invalida o m&#233;todo e podem ser aplicados em estudos futuros.</p>
    <p>O &#237;ndice e o escore VMCP s&#227;o, portanto, um instrumento cl&#237;nico simples e &#250;til, podendo ser usado no dia-a-dia da pr&#225;tica cl&#237;nica. Eles podem identificar um grupo com maior risco cir&#250;rgico para cirurgia valvar, al&#233;m de ajudar a definir o melhor momento para a indica&#231;&#227;o cir&#250;rgica durante o seguimento cl&#237;nico de um paciente portador de valvopatia.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Potencial Conflito de Interesses</bold>
    </p>
    <p>Declaro n&#227;o haver conflito de interesses pertinentes.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Fontes de Financiamento</bold>
    </p>
    <p>O presente estudo foi financiado por FAPESP.</p>
    <p>
      <bold>Vincula&#231;&#227;o Acad&#234;mica</bold>
    </p>
    <p>N&#227;o h&#225; vincula&#231;&#227;o deste estudo a programas de p&#243;s-gradua&#231;&#227;o.</p>
    <p>
      <fn id="add1" fn-type="corresp">
        <p>Correspond&#234;ncia:</p>
        <p> Roney Orismar Sampaio </p>
        <p> Rua En&#233;as de Carvalho Aguiar, 44 </p>
        <p> Unidade Cl&#237;nica de Valvopatias andar AB (Divis&#227;o de Cl&#237;nica) </p>
        <p> Cerqueira Cesar - 05403-000, S&#227;o Paulo, SP - Brasil </p>
        <p> E-mail: </p>
        <p><email xlink:href="orismar@cardiol.br">orismar@cardiol.br</email>, </p>
        <p>
          <email xlink:href="sampaioroney@yahoo.com.br">sampaioroney@yahoo.com.br</email>
        </p>
      </fn>
    </p>
    <p>Artigo recebido em 19/06/08; revisado recebido em 14/08/08; aceito em 19/08/08.</p>
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  <sub-article article-type="translation" id="TRen" xml:lang="en">
    <front-stub>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Original Articles</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="en">Validation of a new surgical risk score for heart valve surgery: VMCP</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>BACKGROUND: Some studies have developed scores for the assessment of surgical risk, particularly the EuroSCORE, which, however, is complex and difficult to apply. We suggest a new and simpler score, which is more appropriate for the clinical practice and for the assessment of surgical risk in patients with heart valve diseases. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to create and validate a simple and practical score to predict mortality and morbidity related to heart valve surgery. METHODS: Hospital data from 764 patients were collected, and the score was validated using two statistical models: death (= mortality) and length of hospital stay (LHS) &gt; 10 days (= morbidity). The score was composed by four indexes (V [heart valve lesion], M [myocardial function], C [coronary artery disease], and P [pulmonary artery pressure]). A cut-off point was set for the score, and uni and multivariate analyses were performed to confirm whether the score would be able to predict mortality and morbidity. The existence of association with other risk factors was also studied. RESULTS: The score was validated with good internal consistency (0.65), and the best cut-off point for mortality and morbidity was 8. Scores &gt; 8 can predict LHS &gt; 10 days (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7; p = 0.006) and a higher death risk, at least in the univariate analysis (p = 0.049). However, the death risk could not be predicted in the multivariate analysis (p=0.258). CONCLUSION: VMCP scores &gt; 8 can predict LHS &gt; 10 days and may be used as a new tool for the follow-up of patients with heart valve disease undergoing surgery.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>Risk assessment</kwd>
        <kwd>cardiac surgical procedures</kwd>
        <kwd>heart valves</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </front-stub>
    <body>
      <p>
        <bold>ORIGINAL ARTICLE</bold>
      </p>
      <p><undefined id="topo-body2"/>Validation of a new surgical risk score for heart valve surgery: VMCP</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Max Grinberg; V&#237;vian Masutti Jonke; Roney Orismar Sampaio; Guilherme Sobreira Spina; Flavio Tarasoutchi</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Instituto do Cora&#231;&#227;o da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de S&#227;o Paulo (InCorFMUSP), S&#227;o Paulo, SP - Brazil</p>
      <p>Mailing address</p>
      <p>
        <bold>SUMMARY</bold>
      </p>
      <p><bold>BACKGROUND:</bold> Some studies have developed scores for the assessment of surgical risk, particularly the EuroSCORE, which, however, is complex and difficult to apply. We suggest a new and simpler score, which is more appropriate for the clinical practice and for the assessment of surgical risk in patients with heart valve diseases.</p>
      <p><bold>OBJECTIVE:</bold> This study was conducted to create and validate a simple and practical score to predict mortality and morbidity related to heart valve surgery.</p>
      <p><bold>METHODS:</bold> Hospital data from 764 patients were collected, and the score was validated using two statistical models: death (= mortality) and length of hospital stay (LHS) &gt; 10 days (= morbidity). The score was composed by four indexes (V [heart valve lesion], M [myocardial function], C [coronary artery disease], and P [pulmonary artery pressure]). A cut-off point was set for the score, and uni and multivariate analyses were performed to confirm whether the score would be able to predict mortality and morbidity. The existence of association with other risk factors was also studied.</p>
      <p><bold>RESULTS:</bold> The score was validated with good internal consistency (0.65), and the best cut-off point for mortality and morbidity was 8. Scores &gt; 8 can predict LHS &gt; 10 days (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7; p = 0.006) and a higher death risk, at least in the univariate analysis (p = 0.049). However, the death risk could not be predicted in the multivariate analysis (p=0.258).</p>
      <p><bold>CONCLUSION:</bold> VMCP scores &gt; 8 can predict LHS &gt; 10 days and may be used as a new tool for the follow-up of patients with heart valve disease undergoing surgery. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2009;92(4):301-306)</p>
      <p><bold>Key words:</bold> Risk assessment; cardiac surgical procedures; heart valves/surgery.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Introduction</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Recently, some studies have demonstrated changes in the management of patients with heart valve disease. One of them showed an association between aortic valve sclerosis and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, even in asymptomatic patients<sup>1</sup>. In asymptomatic mitral regurgitation<sup>2</sup>, an effective regurgitant orifice of at least 40 mm<sup>2</sup> is a good predictor of clinical outcome in the medical follow-up. However, it is difficult to define the best moment for indication of surgery in patients with heart valve disease and to predict surgical mortality and morbidity.</p>
      <p>Rheumatic valve diseases are still common in developing countries<sup>3</sup>. For this reason, many patients undergo surgery very early in life<sup>4</sup>, and frequently require reoperations during the natural history of the disease. </p>
      <p>Three phases are recognized in the natural history of patients with heart valve diseases: asymptomatic, symptomatic, and "transition phase", which is usually difficult to identify. Several adaptive changes such as cardiac chamber hypertrophy and dilatation occur, and advanced disease markers such as pulmonary hypertension and atrial fibrillation develop. </p>
      <p>The onset of symptoms is an evidence for surgical indication<sup>4</sup>, but the extent to which preoperative symptoms have a negative influence on postoperative survival remains controversial<sup>5,6</sup>. Some studies<sup>6,7</sup>, however, have demonstrated that the indication of surgery in minimally symptomatic selected patients may be beneficial. In this group, we point out the importance of surgery for patients with heart valve disease accompanied by left ventricular dysfunction<sup>7,8</sup>.</p>
      <p>Other studies<sup>9-11</sup> used some parameters to evaluate the surgical risk in heart disease populations. EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> is an excellent tool for the evaluation of cardiac surgery risk. However, this score was validated in an older population with a very low incidence of rheumatic disease, in addition to not being specific for heart valve surgery. </p>
      <p>In view of these facts, we created a simplified score based on four critical situations for heart valve disease patients, named VMCP. Thus, the VMCP score (V [heart valve lesion], M [myocardial function], C [coronary artery disease], and P [pulmonary artery pressure]) was used to identify patients with more severe preoperative disease and to correlate postoperative mortality and morbidity with heart valve surgery.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Methods</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Medical records of 927 consecutive patients undergoing heart valve surgery in our Institution were analyzed. A total of 159 patients were excluded due to incomplete data, resulting in a final sample of 768 patients. Data collection from the medical records was conducted retrospectively, and the study protocol was approved by the institutional human research committee. </p>
      <p>The mean age of this cohort was 50&#177;17 years, 55% of the patients were women, 60% had rheumatic heart disease and 38% of the surgeries were reoperations. All patient demographics and clinical data are shown in <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1-body2">Table 1</xref>. </p>
      <table-wrap id="tab1-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt01-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>Surgical mortality and morbidity, as well as the presence of comorbidities and in-hospital parameters were analyzed. The parameters studied included length of hospital stay (LHS), length of ICU stay, duration of extracorporeal circulation, surgical procedure report, emergency surgery, reoperation, and pre and postoperative complications.</p>
      <p>Mortality was defined as intraoperative patient death or death during hospital stay. Morbidity was defined based on the mean length of hospital stay in our institution (10 days) and was considered as a length of hospital stay longer than 10 days. </p>
      <p>The following preoperative comorbidities were studied: hypertension (defined as blood pressure <underline>&gt;</underline> 140/90 mmHg), diabetes (fasting plasma glucose <underline>&gt;</underline> 126 mg/dl), rheumatic fever, cigarette smoking (yes or no, and the amount of cigarettes smoked per day), dyslipidemia (total cholesterol &gt; 240 mg/dl and LDL &gt; 160 mg/dl), renal failure (creatinine &gt; 2 mg/dl), heart failure, stroke and atrial fibrillation.</p>
      <p>With the purpose of creating a simple and practical index - the VMCP score and index - four parameters considered fundamental to characterize heart valve disease were used (<xref ref-type="table" rid="en_a12tab02-body2">Table 2</xref>): (V [heart valve lesion], M [myocardial function], C [coronary artery disease], and P [pulmonary artery pressure]). Each of these parameters was classified into four categories, and the sum of the points of the four index parameters, for instance, V3M2C2P2, result in the score 9 (3+2+2+2).</p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="en_a12tab02-body2">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt02-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>The criteria used for the classification of each variable included clinical and laboratory parameters used in the routine assessment of patients with heart valve disease. Variable V was based on history, clinical examination (presence of symptoms and cardiac auscultation) and echocardiographic diagnosis (single or multiple heart valve lesions). For the definition of mild, moderate or severe heart valve lesion, the criteria described in the guidelines for heart valve disease of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology<sup>14</sup> were used. Thus, for instance, mitral stenosis was considered mild if the valve area was greater than 1.5 cm<sup>2</sup>. Mild lesions, provided that multivalvular and that the patient was symptomatic, were also classified as V4. As regards the presence of symptoms, we considered parameters going from dyspnea (functional class I to IV) to angina and signs of low output such as syncope. Variable M analyzed myocardial function as assessed by left ventricular ejection fraction and echocardiographically quantified using the Teichholz method. Variable C analyzed the coronary circulation based on coronary angiography. Finally, variable P used the pulmonary artery pressure to evaluate the presence and degree of pulmonary hypertension, as indirectly assessed by right ventricular systolic pressure and quantified by tricuspid regurgitation observed on echocardiography.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Statistical analysis</bold>
      </p>
      <p>The statistical analysis was carried out using the SPSS for Windows software (version 13.0). Data on continuous variables were analyzed using the <italic>t </italic>test and data on categorical variables were analyzed using the chi-square test. Continuous variables were expressed as mean &#177; standard deviation (SD), and categorical variables as a number (percentage, %). P values &lt; 0.05 were considered statistically significant.</p>
      <p>Internal score consistency was assessed using alpha (Cronbach) and the area under the curve was estimated. The mean length of hospital stay in our institution (10 days) was used to define the cut-off point of the score. </p>
      <p>ROC curves were used to define the most appropriate cut-off values for the score to predict length of hospital stay longer than 10 days and death. The Mann-Whitney test was used for the comparison of mean score differences for clinical and demographic variables. </p>
      <p>The chi-square test and multiple logistic regression models were used for the analysis of risk factors for death and length of hospital stay &gt; 10 days. Dependent variables of the analysis were death and length of hospital stay &gt; 10 days, and independent variables were the clinical and demographic variables analyzed. The cut-off point used for the score was 8. Also, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for a better model performance. </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Results</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Most of the patients were females (55%), 60% had rheumatic heart valve disease, and 38% of the surgeries were reoperations (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1-body2">Table 1</xref>). </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Score validation</bold>
      </p>
      <p>The internal consistency was good (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.65) for the score, thus showing that the parameters used to comprise the score were correlated. </p>
      <p>ROC curves were used to define the best cut-off point for the score. In relation to the ROC curve, the area under the curve was 0.64 for death (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1-body2">Figure 1</xref>) and 0.61 for length of hospital stay longer than 10 days (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2-body2">Figure 2</xref>); the best cut-off point was 8 for both. Then, the score was divided into VMCP &lt; 8 and VMCP <underline>&gt;</underline> 8. </p>
      <fig id="fig1-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf01-en.jpg"/></fig>
      <fig id="fig2-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf02-en.jpg"/></fig>
      <p>Considering the score as a quantitative variable, a significant difference was found for the mean scores for: rheumatic fever (7.5 <italic>vs</italic> 7.8; p&lt; 0.001), renal failure (7.6 <italic>vs</italic> 8.5; p&lt;0.001), atrial fibrillation (7.5 <italic>vs</italic> 8.1; p&lt;0.001), reoperation (7.5 <italic>vs</italic> 8.0; p&lt;0.001) and death (7.6 <italic>vs</italic> 8.4; p=0.002).</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Morbidity</bold>
      </p>
      <p>In the univariate analysis, a significant association could be observed between length of hospital stay &gt; 10 days and some variables (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3-body2">Table 3</xref>), especially a VMCP score &gt; 8. This association was also observed in the multivariate analysis, which showed that a VMCP score &gt; 8 is able to predict length of hospital stay &gt; 10 days, that is, higher morbidity. The other variables: atrial fibrillation (Odds Ratio [OR] =2.2; p=0.001), rheumatic fever (OR=1.7; p=0.005), dyslipidemia (OR=1.9; p=0.039), cigarette smoking (OR=1.8; p=0.020), and previous endocarditis (OR=2.8; p=0.024) also remained as risk factors for morbidity in the multivariate analysis (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab4-body2">Table 4</xref>).</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab3-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt03-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <table-wrap id="tab4-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt04-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>
        <bold>Mortality</bold>
      </p>
      <p>For mortality, the univariate analysis showed a statistically significant association between some variables and death (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab5-body2">Table 5</xref>), including the VMCP score &gt; 8. The multivariate analysis showed a higher number of deaths related to renal failure (OR=5.6; p&lt;0.001), reoperation (OR=2.6; p=0.004), and diabetes (OR=3.0; p=0.014) (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab6-body2">Table 6</xref>). However, in the multivariate analysis the VMCP score was not statistically significant (p=0.258), showing only a small increase in the odds ratio (1.46); its 95% confidence interval passed through value 1.0.</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab5-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt05-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <table-wrap id="tab6-body2">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt06-en.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>Therefore, the VMCP score &gt; 8 cannot be considered predictive of death, but only a risk factor for higher mortality.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Discussion</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Adaptive changes frequently result in a long natural history in most patients with heart valve disease<sup>4,5</sup>. Throughout this history, surgery may be indicated, and is frequently fundamental for the improvement of symptoms<sup>4</sup>. Additionally, normal left ventricular function is essential for a better outcome of these patients<sup>6,7</sup>.</p>
      <p>In countries where rheumatic valve diseases<sup>3</sup> remain as a serious health problem some peculiarities have been observed in the comparison with patients with degenerative valve disease. These patients have lower mean age (50&#177;17 years)<sup>4</sup>and lower number of conservative heart valve surgeries and, thus, a greater number of patients undergo reoperation (approximately 38% in our case series).</p>
      <p>The routine follow-up of these patients is a good clinical practice to determine the best moment for surgery<sup>15,16</sup>. Waiting for the onset of symptoms<sup>4,16</sup>, preventing irreversible reduction of the left ventricular function<sup>15</sup>, in association with other well-established criteria defined in heart valve disease consensuses<sup>14</sup> help determine the right moment for surgical indication. The best moment is that in which the patient will have the best early and late prognosis.</p>
      <p>We selected four clinical and laboratory variables to characterize a specific moment in the natural history of a group of patients with heart valve disease, thus creating the VMCP index and score.</p>
      <p>This score proved to be an important tool to predict surgical morbidity in heart valve surgery. Simplicity and easiness of use are some of the advantages of the VMCP score. However, this score was not able to predict mortality in the multivariate analysis, perhaps because of the small sample size. This fact, however, did not reduce its value as an interesting new marker of severity. In association with other parameters, a VMCP score &gt; 8 was observed to be related to more severely ill patients probably with worse prognosis. These patients require more intensive medical care both during hospitalization and after discharge. Thus, a VMCP score &gt; 8 also means a more advanced natural history.</p>
      <p>This study confirmed that the presence of comorbidities corresponded to longer length of hospital stay and higher death risk. Additionally, the presence of diabetes, renal failure and reoperation increase the death risk but not the length of hospital stay. </p>
      <p>Atrial fibrillation, rheumatic etiology, dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking and previous endocarditis were identified as risk factors for a longer length of hospital stay. On the other hand, these comorbidities were not risk factors for death.</p>
      <p>Studies on the EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> are very elegant in the analysis of possible risk factors for higher surgical morbidity and mortality. This score uses some clinical and laboratory parameters, estimating mortality rate by the final score. As was observed in this study, decreased renal function, previous endocarditis, myocardial dysfunction, pulmonary hypertension and previous cardiac surgery are also parameters of a worse prognosis in the EuroSCORE. </p>
      <p>Some parameters such as age, high blood glucose and serum creatinine level may increase the degree of prediction of the VMCP score, but their absence does not invalidate the method and they may be used in further studies. </p>
      <p>The VMCP index and score are, therefore, a simple and useful clinical tool and can be used in the daily clinical practice. They can identify a group at a higher surgical risk for heart valve surgery, in addition to helping define the best moment for surgical indication during the clinical follow-up of patients with heart valve disease. </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Potential Conflict of Interest</bold>
      </p>
      <p>No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Sources of Funding</bold>
      </p>
      <p>This study was funded by FAPESP.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Study Association</bold>
      </p>
      <p>This study is not associated with any post-graduation program.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>References</bold>
      </p>
    </body>
  </sub-article>
  <sub-article article-type="translation" id="TRes" xml:lang="es">
    <front-stub>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Art&#237;culos Originales</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="es">Validaci&#243;n de un nuevo score de riesgo quir&#250;rgico para cirug&#237;a valvular: VMCP</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <abstract xml:lang="es">
        <p>FUNDAMENTO: Algunos estudos desarrollaron scores para evaluar el riesgo quir&#250;rgico, particularmente el EuroSCORE que, sin embargo, es complejo y de dif&#237;cil aplicaci&#243;n. Sugerimos una puntuaci&#243;n nueva y sencilla, m&#225;s adecuada para la pr&#225;ctica cl&#237;nica y para la evaluaci&#243;n de riesgo quir&#250;rgico en pacientes con valvulopat&#237;as. OBJETIVO: Se realiz&#243; este estudio con el objetivo de crear y validar un score sencillo y pr&#225;ctico para predecir mortalidad y morbilidad en cirug&#237;a valvular. M&#201;TODOS: Recoleccionamos datos hospitalarios de 764 pacientes y realizamos la validaci&#243;n del score, con la utilizaci&#243;n de dos modelos estad&#237;sticos: &#243;bito (= mortalidad) y tiempo de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria (TIH) &gt; 10 d&#237;as (= morbilidad). El score estaba conpuesto por cuatro &#237;ndicadores (V [lesi&#243;n valvular], M [funci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica], C [enfermedad arterial coronaria] y P [presi&#243;n de la arteria pulmonar]). Establecemos un valor de corte para el score, y utilizamos el an&#225;lisis uni y multivariado para confirmar si la puntuaci&#243;n ser&#237;a capaz de predecir mortalidad y morbilidad. Tambi&#233;n investigamos si hab&#237;a asociaci&#243;n con otros factores de riesgo. RESULTADOS: Se valid&#243; el score, con satisfactoria consistencia interna (0,65). El mejor valor de corte para mortalidad y morbilidad fue 8. El score con valor &gt; 8 es adecuado para predecir tanto el TIH &gt; 10 d&#237;as (odds ratio (OR) = 1,7 p=0,006), como un mayor riesgo de &#243;bito, por lo menos en el an&#225;lisis univariado (p=0,049). No obstante, el riesgo de &#243;bito no se mostr&#243; previsible en el an&#225;lisis multivariado (p=0,258). CONCLUSI&#211;N: El score VMCP &gt; 8 es adecuado para predecir TIH &gt; 10 d&#237;as, y se puede utilizarlo como una nueva herramienta para el seguimiento de pacientes portadores de valvulopat&#237;a sometidos a cirug&#237;a.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="es">
        <kwd>Evaluaci&#243;n de riesgo</kwd>
        <kwd>procedimientos quir&#250;rgicos card&#237;acos</kwd>
        <kwd>v&#225;vulas card&#237;acas</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </front-stub>
    <body>
      <p>
        <bold>ART&#205;CULO ORIGINAL</bold>
      </p>
      <p><undefined id="add1-body3"/>Validaci&#243;n de un nuevo score de riesgo quir&#250;rgico para cirug&#237;a valvular: VMCP</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Max Grinberg; V&#237;vian Masutti Jonke; Roney Orismar Sampaio; Guilherme Sobreira Spina; Flavio Tarasoutchi </bold>
      </p>
      <p>Instituto do Cora&#231;&#227;o da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de S&#227;o Paulo (InCorFMUSP), S&#227;o Paulo, SP - Brasil</p>
      <p>Correspondencia</p>
      <p>
        <bold>RESUMEN</bold>
      </p>
      <p><bold>FUNDAMENTO:</bold> Algunos estudos desarrollaron scores para evaluar el riesgo quir&#250;rgico, particularmente el EuroSCORE que, sin embargo, es complejo y de dif&#237;cil aplicaci&#243;n. Sugerimos una puntuaci&#243;n nueva y sencilla, m&#225;s adecuada para la pr&#225;ctica cl&#237;nica y para la evaluaci&#243;n de riesgo quir&#250;rgico en pacientes con valvulopat&#237;as. <bold>OBJETIVO:</bold> Se realiz&#243; este estudio con el objetivo de crear y validar un score sencillo y pr&#225;ctico para predecir mortalidad y morbilidad en cirug&#237;a valvular. <bold>M&#201;TODOS:</bold> Recoleccionamos datos hospitalarios de 764 pacientes y realizamos la validaci&#243;n del score, con la utilizaci&#243;n de dos modelos estad&#237;sticos: &#243;bito (= mortalidad) y tiempo de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria (TIH) &gt; 10 d&#237;as (= morbilidad). El score estaba conpuesto por cuatro &#237;ndicadores (V [lesi&#243;n valvular], M [funci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica], C [enfermedad arterial coronaria] y P [presi&#243;n de la arteria pulmonar]). Establecemos un valor de corte para el score, y utilizamos el an&#225;lisis uni y multivariado para confirmar si la puntuaci&#243;n ser&#237;a capaz de predecir mortalidad y morbilidad. Tambi&#233;n investigamos si hab&#237;a asociaci&#243;n con otros factores de riesgo.</p>
      <p><bold>RESULTADOS:</bold> Se valid&#243; el score, con satisfactoria consistencia interna (0,65). El mejor valor de corte para mortalidad y morbilidad fue 8. El score con valor &gt; 8 es adecuado para predecir tanto el TIH &gt; 10 d&#237;as (<italic>odds ratio</italic> (OR) = 1,7 p=0,006), como un mayor riesgo de &#243;bito, por lo menos en el an&#225;lisis univariado (p=0,049). No obstante, el riesgo de &#243;bito no se mostr&#243; previsible en el an&#225;lisis multivariado (p=0,258).</p>
      <p><bold>CONCLUSI&#211;N:</bold> El score VMCP &gt; 8 es adecuado para predecir TIH &gt; 10 d&#237;as, y se puede utilizarlo como una nueva herramienta para el seguimiento de pacientes portadores de valvulopat&#237;a sometidos a cirug&#237;a. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2009;92(4):310-315)</p>
      <p><bold>Palabras-clave: </bold>Evaluaci&#243;n de riesgo, procedimientos quir&#250;rgicos card&#237;acos, v&#225;vulas card&#237;acas / cirug&#237;a.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Introducci&#243;n</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Algunos recientes estudios han mostrado cambios en el manejo de portadores de valvulopat&#237;a. Uno de ellos mostr&#243; una asociaci&#243;n entre la esclerosis de la v&#225;lvula a&#243;rtica y la mortalidad y morbilidad cardiovascular, aunque fuera asintom&#225;tica<sup>1</sup>. En la regurgitaci&#243;n mitral asintom&#225;tica<sup>2</sup>, un orificio efectivo de regurgitaci&#243;n de por lo menos 40 mm<sup>2</sup> resulta un buen predictor del resultado cl&#237;nico en el seguimiento m&#233;dico. Sin embargo, hay dificultades en la definici&#243;n del mejor momento para indicar cirug&#237;a en pacientes portadores de valvulopat&#237;a, as&#237; como para predecir mortalidad y morbilidad quir&#250;rgicas.</p>
      <p>Las valvulopat&#237;as de etiolog&#237;a reum&#225;tica permanecen prevalentes en los pa&#237;ses en desarrollo<sup>3</sup>. En virtud de esa peculiaridad, un gran n&#250;mero de pacientes se someten a cirug&#237;a muy j&#243;venes<sup>4</sup> y que frecuentemente necesitan reoperaciones durante la historia natural de la enfermedad.</p>
      <p>Reconocemos tres fases en la historia natural de los portadores de valvulopat&#237;a: asintom&#225;tico, sintom&#225;tico y una "fase de transici&#243;n", la que, en general, es de dif&#237;cil identificaci&#243;n. Diversos cambios adaptativos ocurren, como hipertrofia y dilataci&#243;n de las c&#225;maras card&#237;acas, y aparecen marcadores de enfermedad avanzada, como hipertensi&#243;n pulmonar y fibrilaci&#243;n atrial.</p>
      <p>El surgimiento de s&#237;ntomas se muestra una evidencia de indicaci&#243;n para cirug&#237;a<sup>4</sup>. Sin embargo, es controvertido determinar cuan negativa es la influencia de los s&#237;ntomas postoperatorios en la sobrevida postoperatoria<sup>5, 6</sup>. Algunos estudios<sup>6, 7</sup>, por su parte, han mostrado que indicar cirug&#237;a en pacientes seleccionados con s&#237;ntomas m&#237;nimos puede ser ben&#233;fico. En ese grupo, resaltamos la importancia de la cirug&#237;a para portadores de valvulopat&#237;a con disfunci&#243;n ventricular izquierda<sup>7,8</sup>.</p>
      <p>Otros estudios<sup>9-11</sup> utilizaron determinados par&#225;metros para evaluar el riesgo quir&#250;rgico en poblaciones de cardi&#243;patas. El EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> se revela un instrumento excelente para an&#225;lisis de riesgo en cirug&#237;as card&#237;acas. Sin embargo, se valid&#243; dicho score en una poblaci&#243;n de adultos mayores y con incidencia muy baja de enfermedad reum&#225;tica, adem&#225;s de no ser un score espec&#237;fico para cirug&#237;a valvular. </p>
      <p>De esa manera, proyectamos una puntuaci&#243;n simplificada, con base en cuatro situaciones cr&#237;ticas del paciente con valvulopat&#237;a, denominado VMCP. De ese modo, se utiliz&#243; el score VMCP (V [lesi&#243;n valvular], M [funci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica], C [enfermedad arterial coronaria] y P [presi&#243;n de la arteria pulmonar]) tanto para identificar a pacientes con enfermedad preoperatoria de mayor severidad como para la correlaci&#243;n con mortalidad y morbilidad postoperatorias en cirug&#237;a valvular.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>M&#233;todos</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Analizamos a 927 prontuarios m&#233;dicos de pacientes consecutivos que se sometieron a cirug&#237;a valvular en nuestro Servicio. Se excluyeron a 159 pacientes una vez que presentaban datos incompletos, lo que llev&#243; a una muestra final de 768 pacientes. La recolecci&#243;n de datos se realiz&#243; retrospectivamente. El comit&#233; de investigaci&#243;n humana de nuestra instituci&#243;n aprob&#243; el protocolo del estudio.</p>
      <p>La edad promedio de esa cohorte fue de 50&#177;17 a&#241;os, con el 55% de ellos del sexo femenino, y el 60% ten&#237;an etiolog&#237;a reum&#225;tica. El 38% de las cirug&#237;as, a su vez, constitu&#237;an reoperaciones. La <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab01-body3">Tabla 1</xref> resume todos los datos cl&#237;nicos y demogr&#225;ficos de los pacientes.</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab01-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt01-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>Evaluamos la mortalidad y morbilidad quir&#250;rgicas, adem&#225;s de la presencia de comorbilidades y par&#225;metros intrahospitalarios. Los par&#225;metros estudiados incluyeron tiempo de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria (TIH), tiempo de permanencia en UCI, tiempo de circulaci&#243;n extracorp&#243;rea, relato del procedimiento quir&#250;rgico, cirug&#237;a de emergencia, reoperaci&#243;n y complicaciones pre y postoperatorias.</p>
      <p>Se defini&#243; mortalidad como &#243;bito intraoperatorio u &#243;bito durante el tiempo de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria del paciente. A su vez, con base en el tiempo promedio de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria de nuestra instituci&#243;n (10 d&#237;as), la morbilidad se consider&#243; como un tiempo de internaci&#243;n hospitalaria mayor que 10 d&#237;as.</p>
      <p>Las comorbilidades preoperatorias estudiadas fueron las siguientes: hipertensi&#243;n (definida como presi&#243;n arterial <underline>&gt;</underline> 140/90 mmHg), diabetes (glucemia de ayuno <underline>&gt;</underline> 126 mg/dl), fiebre reum&#225;tica, tabaquismo (si fumaba o no, y, en caso positivo, la cantidad de cigarros por d&#237;a), dislipidemia (colesterol total &gt; 240 mg/dl y LDL &gt; 160 mg/dl), insuficiencia renal (creatinina &gt; 2 mg/dl), insuficiencia cardiaca, accidente cerebrovascular y, finalmente, fibrilaci&#243;n atrial. </p>
      <p>Con el objetivo de crear un indicador sencillo y pr&#225;ctico -el &#237;ndice y score VMCP- utilizamos cuatro par&#225;metros considerados fundamentales para caracterizar la enfermedad valvular (<xref ref-type="table" rid="es_a12tab02-body3">tab.2</xref>): V (lesi&#243;n valvular), M (funci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica), C (enfermedad arterial coronaria) y P (presi&#243;n de la arteria pulmonar). Se clasific&#243; cada uno de esos par&#225;metros en cuatro categor&#237;as, y la suma de la puntuaci&#243;n de los cuatro par&#225;metros del &#237;ndice compone el score: por ejemplo, V3M2C2P2, compone el score 9 (3+2+2+2).</p>
      <p content-type="asset">
        <table-wrap id="es_a12tab02-body3">
          <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt02-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      </p>
      <p>Los criterios utilizados para la clasificaci&#243;n de cada variable incluyeron par&#225;metros cl&#237;nicos y laboratoriales utilizados en la evaluaci&#243;n rutinaria de pacientes portadores de valvulopat&#237;a. La variable V tom&#243; por base la historia, el examen cl&#237;nico (presencia de s&#237;ntomas y ausculta cardiaca) y el diagn&#243;stico ecocardiogr&#225;fico (lesi&#243;n valvular &#250;nica o m&#250;ltiple). Para la definici&#243;n de lesi&#243;n valvular discreta, moderada y severa, se utilizaron los criterios descriptos en las directrices de enfermedad valvular de <italic>American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology</italic><sup>14</sup>. As&#237;, se tom&#243; en consideraci&#243;n, por ejemplo, la estenosis mitral discreta si el &#225;rea valvular estuviera mayor que 1,5 cm<sup>2</sup>. En V4, se consideraron, tambi&#233;n, lesiones de grado discreto, s&#243;lo en el caso de acometimiento multivalvular y el paciente se mostrara sintom&#225;tico. En cuanto a la presencia de s&#237;ntomas, se tomaron en cuenta desde disnea (clase funcional I a IV) hasta angina y se&#241;ales de bajo gasto card&#237;aco, como s&#237;ncopa. La variable M utiliz&#243; la funci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica, evaluada por medio de la fracci&#243;n de eyecci&#243;n del ventr&#237;culo izquierdo que, a su vez, se cuantific&#243; en el ecocardiograma con el m&#233;todo de Teichholz. La variable C analiz&#243; la circulaci&#243;n coronaria basada en la angiograf&#237;a coronaria. Por &#250;ltimo, la variable P utiliz&#243; la presi&#243;n arterial pulmonar como par&#225;metro para evaluar la presencia y el grado de hipertensi&#243;n pulmonar. A su vez, dichos factores se evaluaron de modo indirecto mediante la presi&#243;n sist&#243;lica del ventr&#237;culo derecho, la que se cuantific&#243; por medio del ecocardiograma, mediante la regurgitaci&#243;n tric&#250;spide.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>An&#225;lisis estad&#237;stico</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Se realiz&#243; el an&#225;lisis estad&#237;stico con la utilizaci&#243;n del software SPSS para Windows (versi&#243;n 13.0). Se examinaron los datos de variables continuas a trav&#233;s de prueba <italic>t</italic>. Datos de variables categ&#243;ricas se analizaron medio de la prueba chi-cuadrado. Se expresaron las variables continuas en promedio &#177; desviaci&#243;n est&#225;ndar (DE), mientras que las variables categ&#243;ricas se registraron por n&#250;mero (porcentaje, %). Se consider&#243; p&lt;0,05 un valor estad&#237;sticamente significante. </p>
      <p>Se evalu&#243; la consistencia interna del score por medio del alfa (Cronbach) y se estim&#243; el &#225;rea bajo la curva. Para definir el punto de corte del score, se utiliz&#243; el tiempo promedio de internaci&#243;n de nuestra instituci&#243;n (10 d&#237;as).</p>
      <p>Se utilizaron curvas ROC para determinar el valor de corte m&#225;s adecuado al score para predecir tanto el tiempo de internaci&#243;n mayor que 10 d&#237;as como el &#243;bito. Se procedi&#243; a la comparaci&#243;n de las diferencias de promedios del score para las variables cl&#237;nicas y demogr&#225;ficas mediante la prueba de Mann-Whitney.</p>
      <p>Para analizar los factores de riesgo para &#243;bito y tempo de internaci&#243;n &gt; 10 d&#237;as, aplicamos la prueba chi-cuadrado y los modelos de regresi&#243;n log&#237;stica m&#250;ltiple. Se consideraron variables dependientes el &#243;bito y el tiempo de internaci&#243;n &gt; 10 d&#237;as, mientras que se tomaron como independientes las variables cl&#237;nicas y demogr&#225;ficas analizadas. El punto de corte determinado para el score fue 8. Cabe a&#241;adir que se utiliz&#243; la prueba de Hosmer Lemeshow para un mejor desempe&#241;o del modelo.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Resultados</bold>
      </p>
      <p>La mayor&#237;a de los pacientes pertenec&#237;a al sexo femenino (55%). El 60% de ellos, por su parte, presentaban valvulopat&#237;a de etiolog&#237;a reum&#225;tica, y el 38% de las cirug&#237;as constitu&#237;an reoperaciones (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab01-body3">tab.1</xref>). </p>
      <p>
        <bold>Validaci&#243;n del score </bold>
      </p>
      <p>La consistencia interna result&#243; buena (Alfa Cronbach) (= 0,65) para el score, lo que indica que los par&#225;metros considerados para constituir el score se correlacionaron. </p>
      <p>Para definir el mejor valor de corte para el score, se utilizaron curvas ROC. El &#225;rea bajo a curva fue de 0,64 para &#243;bito (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig01-body3">fig. 1</xref>) y 0,61 para tiempo de internaci&#243;n mayor que 10 d&#237;as (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig02-body3">fig. 2</xref>). Para ambos, el mejor punto de corte fue 8. As&#237;, se dividi&#243; el score en VMCP&lt; 8 y VMCP <underline>&gt;</underline> 8.</p>
      <fig id="fig01-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf01-es.jpg"/></fig>
      <fig id="fig02-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gf02-es.jpg"/></fig>
      <p>Al considerar el score como una variable cuantitativa, se encontr&#243; una diferencia significativa en los promedios de la puntuaci&#243;n para los siguientes par&#225;metros: fiebre reum&#225;tica (7,5 x 7,8; p&lt; 0,001), insuficiencia renal (7,6 x 8,5; p&lt;0,001), fibrilaci&#243;n atrial (7,5 x 8,1; p&lt;0,001), reoperaci&#243;n (7,5 x 8,0; p&lt;0,001) y &#243;bito (7,6 x 8,4; p=0.002).</p>
      <p>
        <bold> Morbilidad</bold>
      </p>
      <p>En el an&#225;lisis univariado se pudo notar una asociaci&#243;n significativa entre el tiempo de internaci&#243;n &gt; 10 d&#237;as y algunas variables (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab03-body3">tab.3</xref>), en especial con el VMCP &gt; 8. Dicha asociaci&#243;n se mantuvo en el an&#225;lisis multivariado, lo que muestra que el score VMCP &gt; 8 se revela capaz de predecir el tiempo de internaci&#243;n &gt; 10 d&#237;as, o sea, mayor morbilidad. Las dem&#225;s variables -fibrilaci&#243;n atrial (<italic>Odds Ratio</italic> (OR) =2,2; p=0,001), fiebre reum&#225;tica (OR=1,7; p=0,005), dislipidemia (OR=1,9; p=0,039), tabaquismo (OR=1,8; p=0,020), y endocarditis previa (OR=2.8; p=0.024)- tambi&#233;n persistieron como factores de riesgo para morbilidad en el an&#225;lisis multivariado (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab04-body3">tab.4</xref>).</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab03-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt03-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <table-wrap id="tab04-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt04-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>
        <bold>Mortalidad</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Con relaci&#243;n a la mortalidad, el an&#225;lisis univariado mostr&#243; una asociaci&#243;n estad&#237;sticamente significativa entre algunas variables y &#243;bito (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab05-body3">tab.5</xref>), ah&#237; incluido el score VMCP &gt; 8. Ya en el an&#225;lisis multivariado, notamos un n&#250;mero mayor de &#243;bitos relacionados a la insuficiencia renal (OR=5,6; p&lt;0,001), reoperaci&#243;n (OR=2,6; p=0,004), y diabetes (OR=3,0; p=0,014) (<xref ref-type="table" rid="tab06-body3">tab.6</xref>). Sin embargo, en este tipo de an&#225;lisis, el score VMCP no se revel&#243; estad&#237;sticamente significativo (p=0,258), ya que se&#241;al&#243; s&#243;lo un peque&#241;o aumento en el valor de <italic>Odds Ratio</italic> (1,46); el intervalo de confianza95% para dicho score pas&#243; por el valor 1,0. Por lo tanto, no se puede considerar el score VMCP &gt; 8 como un predictor de &#243;bito, sino s&#243;lo como un factor de riesgo para mayor mortalidad.</p>
      <table-wrap id="tab05-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt05-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <table-wrap id="tab06-body3">
        <graphic xlink:href="1678-4170-abc-92-04-0320-00012-gt06-es.jpg"/></table-wrap>
      <p>
        <bold>Discusi&#243;n</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Los cambios adaptativos frecuentemente traen como consecuencia una larga historia natural en la mayor&#237;a de los portadores de enfermedad vavlular<sup>4,5</sup>. A lo largo de esa historia, ellos pueden recibir indicaci&#243;n quir&#250;rgica, muchas veces fundamental para la mejora de los s&#237;ntomas<sup>4</sup>. Adem&#225;s de ello, la normalidad de la funci&#243;n del ventr&#237;culo izquierdo resulta esencial para una mejor evoluci&#243;n de esos pacientes<sup>6,7</sup>.</p>
      <p>En pa&#237;ses donde la etiolog&#237;a reum&#225;tica<sup>3</sup> de las valvulopat&#237;as permanece como un severo problema de salud, han sido observadas algunas peculiaridades comparadas a pacientes con enfermedad valvular degenerativa. Esos pacientes presentan edad promedio menor (50&#177;17 a&#241;os)<sup>4</sup>, as&#237; como un n&#250;mero inferior de cirug&#237;as valvulares conservadoras; por lo tanto, un n&#250;mero mayor de pacientes se somete a la reoperaci&#243;n (en nuestra evaluaci&#243;n, cerca del 38%).</p>
      <p>El seguimiento de rutina de esos pacientes es una buena pr&#225;ctica cl&#237;nica para determinar el mejor momento para la cirug&#237;a<sup>15,16</sup>. Aguardar los s&#237;ntomas<sup>4,16</sup>, evitar disminuci&#243;n irreversible de la funci&#243;n del ventr&#237;culo izquierdo<sup>15</sup>, as&#237; como otros criterios conocidos, definidos en los consensos de enfermedad valvular<sup>14</sup>, son procedimientos que ayudan a determinar el momento m&#225;s adecuado para indicaci&#243;n quir&#250;rgica. El mejor momento es aquel en que el paciente tendr&#225; mejor pron&#243;stico precoz y tard&#237;o.</p>
      <p>Seleccionamos cuatro variables cl&#237;nicas y laboratoriales para caracterizar un momento espec&#237;fico de la historia natural de un grupo de pacientes con enfermedad valvular, al crear el &#237;ndice y score VMCP.</p>
      <p>Dicho score se mostr&#243; una importante herramienta para predecir morbilidad quir&#250;rgica en cirug&#237;a valvular. Entre las ventajas del score VMCP, est&#225;n su sencillez y la f&#225;cil aplicabilidad. Por otra parte, ese &#237;ndice no result&#243; capaz de predecir mortalidad en el an&#225;lisis multivariado, tal vez en virtud del tama&#241;o reducido de la muestra. Ese hecho, con todo, no disminuye su valor como un nuevo y atractivo marcador de severidad. Asociado a otros par&#225;metros, fue posible observar que el score VMCP &gt; 8 indica los pacientes m&#225;s enfermos y con peor diagn&#243;stico probable. Esos pacientes necesitan cuidados m&#233;dicos m&#225;s intensivos, tanto durante su internaci&#243;n como tras su alta hospitalaria. De ese modo, el score VMCP &gt; 8 se&#241;ala, a&#250;n, historia natural m&#225;s avanzada.</p>
      <p>El presente estudio confirm&#243; que la presencia de comorbilidades correspondi&#243; a un mayor tiempo de internaci&#243;n y tambi&#233;n un mayor riesgo de &#243;bito. Adem&#225;s de ello, la presencia de diabetes, insuficiencia renal y reoperaci&#243;n no aumenta el tiempo te internaci&#243;n hospitalaria, sino el riesgo de &#243;bito.</p>
      <p>Encontramos fibrilaci&#243;n atrial, etiolog&#237;a reum&#225;tica, dislipidemia, tabaquismo y endocarditis previa como factores de riesgo para tiempo de internaci&#243;n prolongado. A la vez, esas comorbilidades no se mostraron factores de riesgo para &#243;bito.</p>
      <p>Los estudios sobre el EuroSCORE<sup>12,13</sup> realizan un amplio an&#225;lisis respecto a los posibles factores de riesgo para mayor morbilidad y mortalidad quir&#250;rgicas. Esa puntuaci&#243;n utiliza algunos par&#225;metros cl&#237;nicos y laboratoriales, y estima la tasa de mortalidad a partir del score final. Como se observ&#243; en este estudio, p&#233;rdida de la funci&#243;n renal, endocarditis previa, disfunci&#243;n mioc&#225;rdica, hipertensi&#243;n pulmonar y cirug&#237;a cardiaca previa tambi&#233;n son par&#225;metros de peor pron&#243;stico en el EuroSCORE.</p>
      <p>Par&#225;metros como edad, hiperglucemia y nivel s&#233;rico de creatinina pueden incrementar el grado de predicci&#243;n del score VMCP; no se invalida el m&#233;todo, sin embargo, en virtud de la ausencia de dichos par&#225;metros, que pueden aplicarse en estudios futuros.</p>
      <p>El &#237;ndice y el score VMCP son, por lo tanto, un instrumento cl&#237;nico sencillo y &#250;til, que se puede utilizar rutinariamente en la pr&#225;ctica cl&#237;nica. Ellos pueden identificar un grupo con mayor riesgo quir&#250;rgico para cirug&#237;a valvular, adem&#225;s ayudar en la definici&#243;n del mejor momento para indicaci&#243;n quir&#250;rgica, durante el seguimiento cl&#237;nico de un paciente portador de valvulopat&#237;a.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Potencial Conflicto de Intereses</bold>
      </p>
      <p>Declaro no haber conflicto de intereses pertinentes.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Fuentes de Financiaci&#243;n</bold>
      </p>
      <p>El presente estudio fue financiado por la Fundaci&#243;n de Amparo a la Investigaci&#243;n del Estado de S&#227;o Paulo - FAPESP.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Vinculaci&#243;n Acad&#233;mica</bold>
      </p>
      <p>No hay vinculaci&#243;n de este estudio a programas de postgrado.</p>
      <p>
        <bold>Referencias</bold>
      </p>
    </body>
  </sub-article>
</article>
